Settlement simulation
Haiti vs Scotland (0–1) · fixture #17588316 replayed through the PulsePlay A–E market state machines · 123 market instances · 22 gap-bites (settlement-integrity risks from the missing-data workarounds).
Per-archetype outcomes
A · Rolling window
72 instances
63 resolved
9 voided
B · Set-piece outcome
7 instances
7 resolved
⚠ 1 gap-bites
C · Next-event
12 instances
12 resolved
D · Segment O/U
8 instances
6 resolved
2 push
E · Possession
24 instances
21 resolved
3 voided
⚠ 21 gap-bites
Market instances
123 shown0'AGoal in next 5 minNOresolved
- 0'window OPEN
- 5'window closed, no event → NO
0'ACorner in next 5 minNOresolved
- 0'window OPEN
- 5'window closed, no event → NO
0'AShot in next 5 minYESresolved
- 0'window OPEN
- 3'shot (confirmed) inside window → YES
0'DTotal corners 15-min seg (O/U 4)UNDER (0)resolved
- 0'segment OPEN
- 15'counted 0 corner → UNDER
0'CNext corner: home/awayP1resolved
- 0'OPEN (scheduler tick)
- 73'next corner → P1 (after 4405.4s)
0'CNext throw-in: home/awayP2resolved
- 0'OPEN (scheduler tick)
- 0'next throw_in → P2 (after 12.4s)
0'EHome possession O/U 50% (5min)UNDER (49%)resolved⚠
self-integrated from the Possession stream — basis (time-in-control vs danger heuristic) & final-vs-interim UNCONFIRMED by TxOdds.
- 0'window OPEN
- 5'integrated home 49% → UNDER
5'AGoal in next 5 minNOresolved
- 5'window OPEN
- 10'window closed, no event → NO
5'ACorner in next 5 minNOresolved
- 5'window OPEN
- 10'window closed, no event → NO
5'AShot in next 5 minYESresolved
- 5'window OPEN
- 6'shot (confirmed) inside window → YES
5'EHome possession O/U 50% (5min)UNDER (31%)resolved⚠
self-integrated from the Possession stream — basis (time-in-control vs danger heuristic) & final-vs-interim UNCONFIRMED by TxOdds.
- 5'window OPEN
- 10'integrated home 31% → UNDER
10'AGoal in next 5 minNOresolved
- 10'window OPEN
- 15'window closed, no event → NO
10'ACorner in next 5 minNOresolved
- 10'window OPEN
- 15'window closed, no event → NO
10'AShot in next 5 minYESresolved
- 10'window OPEN
- 11'shot (confirmed) inside window → YES
10'EHome possession O/U 50% (5min)OVER (68%)resolved⚠
self-integrated from the Possession stream — basis (time-in-control vs danger heuristic) & final-vs-interim UNCONFIRMED by TxOdds.
- 10'window OPEN
- 15'integrated home 68% → OVER
15'AGoal in next 5 minNOresolved
- 15'window OPEN
- 20'window closed, no event → NO
15'ACorner in next 5 minNOresolved
- 15'window OPEN
- 20'window closed, no event → NO
15'AShot in next 5 minYESresolved
- 15'window OPEN
- 17'shot (confirmed) inside window → YES
15'DTotal corners 15-min seg (O/U 4)UNDER (0)resolved
- 15'segment OPEN
- 30'counted 0 corner → UNDER
15'EHome possession O/U 50% (5min)UNDER (46%)resolved⚠
self-integrated from the Possession stream — basis (time-in-control vs danger heuristic) & final-vs-interim UNCONFIRMED by TxOdds.
- 15'window OPEN
- 20'integrated home 46% → UNDER
20'CNext corner: home/awayP1resolved
- 20'OPEN (scheduler tick)
- 73'next corner → P1 (after 3207.8s)
20'CNext throw-in: home/awayP2resolved
- 20'OPEN (scheduler tick)
- 26'next throw_in → P2 (after 351.8s)
20'AGoal in next 5 minNOresolved
- 20'window OPEN
- 25'window closed, no event → NO
20'ACorner in next 5 minNOresolved
- 20'window OPEN
- 25'window closed, no event → NO
20'AShot in next 5 minNOresolved
- 20'window OPEN
- 25'window closed, no event → NO
20'EHome possession O/U 50% (5min)UNDER (39%)resolved⚠
self-integrated from the Possession stream — basis (time-in-control vs danger heuristic) & final-vs-interim UNCONFIRMED by TxOdds.
- 20'window OPEN
- 25'integrated home 39% → UNDER
25'AGoal in next 5 minYESresolved
- 25'window OPEN
- 29'goal (confirmed) inside window → YES
25'ACorner in next 5 minNOresolved
- 25'window OPEN
- 30'window closed, no event → NO
25'AShot in next 5 minNOresolved
- 25'window OPEN
- 30'window closed, no event → NO
25'EHome possession O/U 50% (5min)UNDER (22%)resolved⚠
self-integrated from the Possession stream — basis (time-in-control vs danger heuristic) & final-vs-interim UNCONFIRMED by TxOdds.
- 25'window OPEN
- 30'integrated home 22% → UNDER
30'AGoal in next 5 minNOresolved
- 30'window OPEN
- 35'window closed, no event → NO
30'ACorner in next 5 minNOresolved
- 30'window OPEN
- 35'window closed, no event → NO
30'AShot in next 5 minYESresolved
- 30'window OPEN
- 32'shot (confirmed) inside window → YES
30'DTotal corners 15-min seg (O/U 4)UNDER (0)resolved
- 30'segment OPEN
- 45'counted 0 corner → UNDER
30'EHome possession O/U 50% (5min)OVER (64%)resolved⚠
self-integrated from the Possession stream — basis (time-in-control vs danger heuristic) & final-vs-interim UNCONFIRMED by TxOdds.
- 30'window OPEN
- 35'integrated home 64% → OVER
35'AGoal in next 5 minNOresolved
- 35'window OPEN
- 40'window closed, no event → NO
35'ACorner in next 5 minNOresolved
- 35'window OPEN
- 40'window closed, no event → NO
35'AShot in next 5 minYESresolved
- 35'window OPEN
- 35'shot (confirmed) inside window → YES
35'EHome possession O/U 50% (5min)UNDER (47%)resolved⚠
self-integrated from the Possession stream — basis (time-in-control vs danger heuristic) & final-vs-interim UNCONFIRMED by TxOdds.
- 35'window OPEN
- 40'integrated home 47% → UNDER
40'CNext corner: home/awayP1resolved
- 40'OPEN (scheduler tick)
- 73'next corner → P1 (after 2010.2s)
40'CNext throw-in: home/awayP2resolved
- 40'OPEN (scheduler tick)
- 43'next throw_in → P2 (after 188.5s)
40'AGoal in next 5 minNOresolved
- 40'window OPEN
- 45'window closed, no event → NO
40'ACorner in next 5 minNOresolved
- 40'window OPEN
- 45'window closed, no event → NO
40'AShot in next 5 minYESresolved
- 40'window OPEN
- 40'shot (confirmed) inside window → YES
40'EHome possession O/U 50% (5min)OVER (59%)resolved⚠
self-integrated from the Possession stream — basis (time-in-control vs danger heuristic) & final-vs-interim UNCONFIRMED by TxOdds.
- 40'window OPEN
- 45'integrated home 59% → OVER
45'AGoal in next 5 minvoided
void: window straddles a period boundary (HT/FT)
- 45'window OPEN
45'ACorner in next 5 minvoided
void: window straddles a period boundary (HT/FT)
- 45'window OPEN
45'AShot in next 5 minvoided
void: window straddles a period boundary (HT/FT)
- 45'window OPEN
45'DTotal corners 15-min seg (O/U 4)push
void: segment straddles a period boundary → push/prorate
- 45'segment OPEN
- 60'straddles boundary → PUSH
45'EHome possession O/U 50% (5min)voided
void: segment straddles a period boundary
- 45'window OPEN
- 50'straddles boundary → VOID
50'AGoal in next 5 minvoided
void: window straddles a period boundary (HT/FT)
- 50'window OPEN
50'ACorner in next 5 minvoided
void: window straddles a period boundary (HT/FT)
- 50'window OPEN
50'AShot in next 5 minvoided
void: window straddles a period boundary (HT/FT)
- 50'window OPEN
50'EHome possession O/U 50% (5min)voided
void: segment straddles a period boundary
- 50'window OPEN
- 55'straddles boundary → VOID
55'AGoal in next 5 minNOresolved
- 55'window OPEN
- 60'window closed, no event → NO
55'ACorner in next 5 minNOresolved
- 55'window OPEN
- 60'window closed, no event → NO
55'AShot in next 5 minNOresolved
- 55'window OPEN
- 60'window closed, no event → NO
55'EHome possession O/U 50% (5min)UNDER (0%)resolved⚠
self-integrated from the Possession stream — basis (time-in-control vs danger heuristic) & final-vs-interim UNCONFIRMED by TxOdds.
- 55'window OPEN
- 60'integrated home 0% → UNDER
60'CNext corner: home/awayP1resolved
- 60'OPEN (scheduler tick)
- 73'next corner → P1 (after 812.6s)
60'CNext throw-in: home/awayP1resolved
- 60'OPEN (scheduler tick)
- 72'next throw_in → P1 (after 741.5s)
60'AGoal in next 5 minNOresolved
- 60'window OPEN
- 65'window closed, no event → NO
60'ACorner in next 5 minNOresolved
- 60'window OPEN
- 65'window closed, no event → NO
60'AShot in next 5 minNOresolved
- 60'window OPEN
- 65'window closed, no event → NO
60'DTotal corners 15-min seg (O/U 4)UNDER (1)resolved
- 60'segment OPEN
- 75'counted 1 corner → UNDER
60'EHome possession O/U 50% (5min)UNDER (0%)resolved⚠
self-integrated from the Possession stream — basis (time-in-control vs danger heuristic) & final-vs-interim UNCONFIRMED by TxOdds.
- 60'window OPEN
- 65'integrated home 0% → UNDER
65'AGoal in next 5 minNOresolved
- 65'window OPEN
- 70'window closed, no event → NO
65'ACorner in next 5 minNOresolved
- 65'window OPEN
- 70'window closed, no event → NO
65'AShot in next 5 minNOresolved
- 65'window OPEN
- 70'window closed, no event → NO
65'EHome possession O/U 50% (5min)UNDER (46%)resolved⚠
self-integrated from the Possession stream — basis (time-in-control vs danger heuristic) & final-vs-interim UNCONFIRMED by TxOdds.
- 65'window OPEN
- 70'integrated home 46% → UNDER
70'AGoal in next 5 minNOresolved
- 70'window OPEN
- 75'window closed, no event → NO
70'ACorner in next 5 minYESresolved
- 70'window OPEN
- 73'corner (confirmed) inside window → YES
70'AShot in next 5 minNOresolved
- 70'window OPEN
- 75'window closed, no event → NO
70'EHome possession O/U 50% (5min)OVER (52%)resolved⚠
self-integrated from the Possession stream — basis (time-in-control vs danger heuristic) & final-vs-interim UNCONFIRMED by TxOdds.
- 70'window OPEN
- 75'integrated home 52% → OVER
73'BCorner outcomecleared_no_shotresolved
- 73'corner_awarded → OPEN
- 74'LOCK +8.0s (no corner_taken marker)
- 74'phase window closes (+30.0s) → cleared_no_shot
75'AGoal in next 5 minNOresolved
- 75'window OPEN
- 80'window closed, no event → NO
75'ACorner in next 5 minYESresolved
- 75'window OPEN
- 76'corner (confirmed) inside window → YES
75'AShot in next 5 minNOresolved
- 75'window OPEN
- 80'window closed, no event → NO
75'DTotal corners 15-min seg (O/U 4)UNDER (3)resolved
- 75'segment OPEN
- 90'counted 3 corner → UNDER
75'EHome possession O/U 50% (5min)UNDER (27%)resolved⚠
self-integrated from the Possession stream — basis (time-in-control vs danger heuristic) & final-vs-interim UNCONFIRMED by TxOdds.
- 75'window OPEN
- 80'integrated home 27% → UNDER
76'BCorner outcomecleared_no_shotresolved⚠
⚠ a corner landed 0.5s AFTER the 30.0s phase window — no set-piece id means it can't be excluded with certainty; window length is a guess.
- 76'corner_awarded → OPEN
- 76'LOCK +8.0s (no corner_taken marker)
- 77'phase window closes (+30.0s) → cleared_no_shot
77'BCorner outcomecleared_no_shotresolved
- 77'corner_awarded → OPEN
- 77'LOCK +8.0s (no corner_taken marker)
- 77'phase window closes (+30.0s) → cleared_no_shot
80'CNext corner: home/awayP2resolved
- 80'OPEN (scheduler tick)
- 80'next corner → P2 (after 30.2s)
80'CNext throw-in: home/awayP2resolved
- 80'OPEN (scheduler tick)
- 82'next throw_in → P2 (after 141.2s)
80'AGoal in next 5 minNOresolved
- 80'window OPEN
- 85'window closed, no event → NO
80'ACorner in next 5 minYESresolved
- 80'window OPEN
- 80'corner (confirmed) inside window → YES
80'AShot in next 5 minNOresolved
- 80'window OPEN
- 85'window closed, no event → NO
80'EHome possession O/U 50% (5min)UNDER (49%)resolved⚠
self-integrated from the Possession stream — basis (time-in-control vs danger heuristic) & final-vs-interim UNCONFIRMED by TxOdds.
- 80'window OPEN
- 85'integrated home 49% → UNDER
80'BCorner outcomecleared_no_shotresolved
- 80'corner_awarded → OPEN
- 80'LOCK +8.0s (no corner_taken marker)
- 81'phase window closes (+30.0s) → cleared_no_shot
85'AGoal in next 5 minNOresolved
- 85'window OPEN
- 90'window closed, no event → NO
85'ACorner in next 5 minNOresolved
- 85'window OPEN
- 90'window closed, no event → NO
85'AShot in next 5 minNOresolved
- 85'window OPEN
- 90'window closed, no event → NO
85'EHome possession O/U 50% (5min)UNDER (34%)resolved⚠
self-integrated from the Possession stream — basis (time-in-control vs danger heuristic) & final-vs-interim UNCONFIRMED by TxOdds.
- 85'window OPEN
- 90'integrated home 34% → UNDER
90'AGoal in next 5 minNOresolved
- 90'window OPEN
- 95'window closed, no event → NO
90'ACorner in next 5 minNOresolved
- 90'window OPEN
- 95'window closed, no event → NO
90'AShot in next 5 minYESresolved
- 90'window OPEN
- 94'shot (confirmed) inside window → YES
90'DTotal corners 15-min seg (O/U 4)UNDER (3)resolved
- 90'segment OPEN
- 105'counted 3 corner → UNDER
90'EHome possession O/U 50% (5min)UNDER (12%)resolved⚠
self-integrated from the Possession stream — basis (time-in-control vs danger heuristic) & final-vs-interim UNCONFIRMED by TxOdds.
- 90'window OPEN
- 95'integrated home 12% → UNDER
95'AGoal in next 5 minNOresolved
- 95'window OPEN
- 100'window closed, no event → NO
95'ACorner in next 5 minYESresolved
- 95'window OPEN
- 98'corner (confirmed) inside window → YES
95'AShot in next 5 minYESresolved
- 95'window OPEN
- 99'shot (confirmed) inside window → YES
95'EHome possession O/U 50% (5min)OVER (91%)resolved⚠
self-integrated from the Possession stream — basis (time-in-control vs danger heuristic) & final-vs-interim UNCONFIRMED by TxOdds.
- 95'window OPEN
- 100'integrated home 91% → OVER
98'BCorner outcomecleared_no_shotresolved
- 98'corner_awarded → OPEN
- 98'LOCK +8.0s (no corner_taken marker)
- 99'phase window closes (+30.0s) → cleared_no_shot
100'CNext corner: home/awayP1resolved
- 100'OPEN (scheduler tick)
- 100'next corner → P1 (after 0.2s)
100'CNext throw-in: home/awayP2resolved
- 100'OPEN (scheduler tick)
- 101'next throw_in → P2 (after 66.4s)
100'BCorner outcomecleared_no_shotresolved
- 100'corner_awarded → OPEN
- 100'LOCK +8.0s (no corner_taken marker)
- 100'phase window closes (+30.0s) → cleared_no_shot
100'AGoal in next 5 minNOresolved
- 100'window OPEN
- 105'window closed, no event → NO
100'ACorner in next 5 minYESresolved
- 100'window OPEN
- 102'corner (confirmed) inside window → YES
100'AShot in next 5 minYESresolved
- 100'window OPEN
- 101'shot (confirmed) inside window → YES
100'EHome possession O/U 50% (5min)OVER (62%)resolved⚠
self-integrated from the Possession stream — basis (time-in-control vs danger heuristic) & final-vs-interim UNCONFIRMED by TxOdds.
- 100'window OPEN
- 105'integrated home 62% → OVER
102'BCorner outcomecleared_no_shotresolved
- 102'corner_awarded → OPEN
- 102'LOCK +8.0s (no corner_taken marker)
- 102'phase window closes (+30.0s) → cleared_no_shot
105'AGoal in next 5 minNOresolved
- 105'window OPEN
- 110'window closed, no event → NO
105'ACorner in next 5 minNOresolved
- 105'window OPEN
- 110'window closed, no event → NO
105'AShot in next 5 minYESresolved
- 105'window OPEN
- 106'shot (confirmed) inside window → YES
105'DTotal corners 15-min seg (O/U 4)push
void: segment straddles a period boundary → push/prorate
- 105'segment OPEN
- 120'straddles boundary → PUSH
105'EHome possession O/U 50% (5min)OVER (70%)resolved⚠
self-integrated from the Possession stream — basis (time-in-control vs danger heuristic) & final-vs-interim UNCONFIRMED by TxOdds.
- 105'window OPEN
- 110'integrated home 70% → OVER
110'AGoal in next 5 minNOresolved
- 110'window OPEN
- 115'window closed, no event → NO
110'ACorner in next 5 minNOresolved
- 110'window OPEN
- 115'window closed, no event → NO
110'AShot in next 5 minNOresolved
- 110'window OPEN
- 115'window closed, no event → NO
110'EHome possession O/U 50% (5min)OVER (59%)resolved⚠
self-integrated from the Possession stream — basis (time-in-control vs danger heuristic) & final-vs-interim UNCONFIRMED by TxOdds.
- 110'window OPEN
- 115'integrated home 59% → OVER
115'AGoal in next 5 minvoided
void: window straddles a period boundary (HT/FT)
- 115'window OPEN
115'ACorner in next 5 minvoided
void: window straddles a period boundary (HT/FT)
- 115'window OPEN
115'AShot in next 5 minvoided
void: window straddles a period boundary (HT/FT)
- 115'window OPEN
115'EHome possession O/U 50% (5min)voided
void: segment straddles a period boundary
- 115'window OPEN
- 120'straddles boundary → VOID
Workarounds applied (no real data exists): set-piece Lock = fixed 8s window after the award (no *_taken marker); corner-outcome phase = 30s window (no set-piece id); possession = self-integrated from the Possession stream (basis unconfirmed). The ⚠ flags are exactly where these guesses could mis-settle on real data.
