Settlement simulation
France vs Ivory Coast (1–2) · fixture #17882805 replayed through the PulsePlay A–E market state machines · 126 market instances · 24 gap-bites (settlement-integrity risks from the missing-data workarounds).
Per-archetype outcomes
A · Rolling window
72 instances
66 resolved
6 voided
B · Set-piece outcome
10 instances
10 resolved
⚠ 2 gap-bites
C · Next-event
12 instances
12 resolved
D · Segment O/U
8 instances
6 resolved
2 push
E · Possession
24 instances
22 resolved
2 voided
⚠ 22 gap-bites
Market instances
126 shown0'AGoal in next 5 minNOresolved
- 0'window OPEN
- 5'window closed, no event → NO
0'ACorner in next 5 minNOresolved
- 0'window OPEN
- 5'window closed, no event → NO
0'AShot in next 5 minYESresolved
- 0'window OPEN
- 1'shot (confirmed) inside window → YES
0'DTotal corners 15-min seg (O/U 4)UNDER (0)resolved
- 0'segment OPEN
- 15'counted 0 corner → UNDER
0'CNext corner: home/awayP2resolved
- 0'OPEN (scheduler tick)
- 27'next corner → P2 (after 1613.7s)
0'CNext throw-in: home/awayP1resolved
- 0'OPEN (scheduler tick)
- 22'next throw_in → P1 (after 1292.7s)
0'EHome possession O/U 50% (5min)OVER (59%)resolved⚠
self-integrated from the Possession stream — basis (time-in-control vs danger heuristic) & final-vs-interim UNCONFIRMED by TxOdds.
- 0'window OPEN
- 5'integrated home 59% → OVER
5'AGoal in next 5 minNOresolved
- 5'window OPEN
- 10'window closed, no event → NO
5'ACorner in next 5 minNOresolved
- 5'window OPEN
- 10'window closed, no event → NO
5'AShot in next 5 minYESresolved
- 5'window OPEN
- 6'shot (confirmed) inside window → YES
5'EHome possession O/U 50% (5min)OVER (71%)resolved⚠
self-integrated from the Possession stream — basis (time-in-control vs danger heuristic) & final-vs-interim UNCONFIRMED by TxOdds.
- 5'window OPEN
- 10'integrated home 71% → OVER
10'AGoal in next 5 minNOresolved
- 10'window OPEN
- 15'window closed, no event → NO
10'ACorner in next 5 minNOresolved
- 10'window OPEN
- 15'window closed, no event → NO
10'AShot in next 5 minNOresolved
- 10'window OPEN
- 15'window closed, no event → NO
10'EHome possession O/U 50% (5min)OVER (87%)resolved⚠
self-integrated from the Possession stream — basis (time-in-control vs danger heuristic) & final-vs-interim UNCONFIRMED by TxOdds.
- 10'window OPEN
- 15'integrated home 87% → OVER
15'AGoal in next 5 minNOresolved
- 15'window OPEN
- 20'window closed, no event → NO
15'ACorner in next 5 minNOresolved
- 15'window OPEN
- 20'window closed, no event → NO
15'AShot in next 5 minYESresolved
- 15'window OPEN
- 15'shot (confirmed) inside window → YES
15'DTotal corners 15-min seg (O/U 4)UNDER (1)resolved
- 15'segment OPEN
- 30'counted 1 corner → UNDER
15'EHome possession O/U 50% (5min)OVER (60%)resolved⚠
self-integrated from the Possession stream — basis (time-in-control vs danger heuristic) & final-vs-interim UNCONFIRMED by TxOdds.
- 15'window OPEN
- 20'integrated home 60% → OVER
20'CNext corner: home/awayP2resolved
- 20'OPEN (scheduler tick)
- 27'next corner → P2 (after 428.9s)
20'CNext throw-in: home/awayP1resolved
- 20'OPEN (scheduler tick)
- 22'next throw_in → P1 (after 108.0s)
20'AGoal in next 5 minNOresolved
- 20'window OPEN
- 25'window closed, no event → NO
20'ACorner in next 5 minNOresolved
- 20'window OPEN
- 25'window closed, no event → NO
20'AShot in next 5 minYESresolved
- 20'window OPEN
- 20'shot (confirmed) inside window → YES
20'EHome possession O/U 50% (5min)UNDER (25%)resolved⚠
self-integrated from the Possession stream — basis (time-in-control vs danger heuristic) & final-vs-interim UNCONFIRMED by TxOdds.
- 20'window OPEN
- 25'integrated home 25% → UNDER
25'AGoal in next 5 minNOresolved
- 25'window OPEN
- 30'window closed, no event → NO
25'ACorner in next 5 minYESresolved
- 25'window OPEN
- 27'corner (confirmed) inside window → YES
25'AShot in next 5 minYESresolved
- 25'window OPEN
- 28'shot (confirmed) inside window → YES
25'EHome possession O/U 50% (5min)OVER (61%)resolved⚠
self-integrated from the Possession stream — basis (time-in-control vs danger heuristic) & final-vs-interim UNCONFIRMED by TxOdds.
- 25'window OPEN
- 30'integrated home 61% → OVER
27'BCorner outcomecleared_no_shotresolved⚠
⚠ a shot landed 6.4s AFTER the 30.0s phase window — no set-piece id means it can't be excluded with certainty; window length is a guess.
- 27'corner_awarded → OPEN
- 27'LOCK +8.0s (no corner_taken marker)
- 27'phase window closes (+30.0s) → cleared_no_shot
30'AGoal in next 5 minNOresolved
- 30'window OPEN
- 35'window closed, no event → NO
30'ACorner in next 5 minYESresolved
- 30'window OPEN
- 32'corner (confirmed) inside window → YES
30'AShot in next 5 minYESresolved
- 30'window OPEN
- 33'shot (confirmed) inside window → YES
30'DTotal corners 15-min seg (O/U 4)UNDER (4)resolved
- 30'segment OPEN
- 45'counted 4 corner → UNDER
30'EHome possession O/U 50% (5min)UNDER (49%)resolved⚠
self-integrated from the Possession stream — basis (time-in-control vs danger heuristic) & final-vs-interim UNCONFIRMED by TxOdds.
- 30'window OPEN
- 35'integrated home 49% → UNDER
32'BCorner outcomecleared_no_shotresolved
- 32'corner_awarded → OPEN
- 32'LOCK +8.0s (no corner_taken marker)
- 32'phase window closes (+30.0s) → cleared_no_shot
35'AGoal in next 5 minNOresolved
- 35'window OPEN
- 40'window closed, no event → NO
35'ACorner in next 5 minYESresolved
- 35'window OPEN
- 40'corner (confirmed) inside window → YES
35'AShot in next 5 minYESresolved
- 35'window OPEN
- 40'shot (confirmed) inside window → YES
35'EHome possession O/U 50% (5min)OVER (73%)resolved⚠
self-integrated from the Possession stream — basis (time-in-control vs danger heuristic) & final-vs-interim UNCONFIRMED by TxOdds.
- 35'window OPEN
- 40'integrated home 73% → OVER
39'CNext corner: home/awayP1resolved
- 39'OPEN (scheduler tick)
- 40'next corner → P1 (after 19.2s)
39'CNext throw-in: home/awayP2resolved
- 39'OPEN (scheduler tick)
- 69'next throw_in → P2 (after 1756.9s)
40'BCorner outcomecleared_no_shotresolved
- 40'corner_awarded → OPEN
- 40'LOCK +8.0s (no corner_taken marker)
- 40'phase window closes (+30.0s) → cleared_no_shot
40'AGoal in next 5 minNOresolved
- 40'window OPEN
- 45'window closed, no event → NO
40'ACorner in next 5 minYESresolved
- 40'window OPEN
- 42'corner (confirmed) inside window → YES
40'AShot in next 5 minYESresolved
- 40'window OPEN
- 42'shot (confirmed) inside window → YES
40'EHome possession O/U 50% (5min)OVER (58%)resolved⚠
self-integrated from the Possession stream — basis (time-in-control vs danger heuristic) & final-vs-interim UNCONFIRMED by TxOdds.
- 40'window OPEN
- 45'integrated home 58% → OVER
42'BCorner outcomeshot_no_goalresolved
- 42'corner_awarded → OPEN
- 42'LOCK +8.0s (no corner_taken marker)
- 42'phase window closes (+30.0s) → shot_no_goal
44'BCorner outcomeshot_no_goalresolved
- 44'corner_awarded → OPEN
- 44'LOCK +8.0s (no corner_taken marker)
- 44'phase window closes (+30.0s) → shot_no_goal
45'AGoal in next 5 minYESresolved
- 45'window OPEN
- 46'goal (confirmed) inside window → YES
45'ACorner in next 5 minNOresolved
- 45'window OPEN
- 50'window closed, no event → NO
45'AShot in next 5 minNOresolved
- 45'window OPEN
- 50'window closed, no event → NO
45'DTotal corners 15-min seg (O/U 4)push
void: segment straddles a period boundary → push/prorate
- 45'segment OPEN
- 60'straddles boundary → PUSH
45'EHome possession O/U 50% (5min)UNDER (29%)resolved⚠
self-integrated from the Possession stream — basis (time-in-control vs danger heuristic) & final-vs-interim UNCONFIRMED by TxOdds.
- 45'window OPEN
- 50'integrated home 29% → UNDER
50'AGoal in next 5 minvoided
void: window straddles a period boundary (HT/FT)
- 50'window OPEN
50'ACorner in next 5 minvoided
void: window straddles a period boundary (HT/FT)
- 50'window OPEN
50'AShot in next 5 minvoided
void: window straddles a period boundary (HT/FT)
- 50'window OPEN
50'EHome possession O/U 50% (5min)voided
void: segment straddles a period boundary
- 50'window OPEN
- 55'straddles boundary → VOID
55'AGoal in next 5 minNOresolved
- 55'window OPEN
- 60'window closed, no event → NO
55'ACorner in next 5 minNOresolved
- 55'window OPEN
- 60'window closed, no event → NO
55'AShot in next 5 minNOresolved
- 55'window OPEN
- 60'window closed, no event → NO
55'EHome possession O/U 50% (5min)UNDER (0%)resolved⚠
self-integrated from the Possession stream — basis (time-in-control vs danger heuristic) & final-vs-interim UNCONFIRMED by TxOdds.
- 55'window OPEN
- 60'integrated home 0% → UNDER
59'CNext corner: home/awayP1resolved
- 59'OPEN (scheduler tick)
- 79'next corner → P1 (after 1170.7s)
59'CNext throw-in: home/awayP2resolved
- 59'OPEN (scheduler tick)
- 69'next throw_in → P2 (after 572.1s)
60'AGoal in next 5 minNOresolved
- 60'window OPEN
- 65'window closed, no event → NO
60'ACorner in next 5 minNOresolved
- 60'window OPEN
- 65'window closed, no event → NO
60'AShot in next 5 minNOresolved
- 60'window OPEN
- 65'window closed, no event → NO
60'DTotal corners 15-min seg (O/U 4)UNDER (0)resolved
- 60'segment OPEN
- 75'counted 0 corner → UNDER
60'EHome possession O/U 50% (5min)UNDER (0%)resolved⚠
self-integrated from the Possession stream — basis (time-in-control vs danger heuristic) & final-vs-interim UNCONFIRMED by TxOdds.
- 60'window OPEN
- 65'integrated home 0% → UNDER
65'AGoal in next 5 minNOresolved
- 65'window OPEN
- 70'window closed, no event → NO
65'ACorner in next 5 minNOresolved
- 65'window OPEN
- 70'window closed, no event → NO
65'AShot in next 5 minNOresolved
- 65'window OPEN
- 70'window closed, no event → NO
65'EHome possession O/U 50% (5min)UNDER (0%)resolved⚠
self-integrated from the Possession stream — basis (time-in-control vs danger heuristic) & final-vs-interim UNCONFIRMED by TxOdds.
- 65'window OPEN
- 70'integrated home 0% → UNDER
70'AGoal in next 5 minNOresolved
- 70'window OPEN
- 75'window closed, no event → NO
70'ACorner in next 5 minNOresolved
- 70'window OPEN
- 75'window closed, no event → NO
70'AShot in next 5 minNOresolved
- 70'window OPEN
- 75'window closed, no event → NO
70'EHome possession O/U 50% (5min)OVER (74%)resolved⚠
self-integrated from the Possession stream — basis (time-in-control vs danger heuristic) & final-vs-interim UNCONFIRMED by TxOdds.
- 70'window OPEN
- 75'integrated home 74% → OVER
75'AGoal in next 5 minYESresolved
- 75'window OPEN
- 77'goal (confirmed) inside window → YES
75'ACorner in next 5 minYESresolved
- 75'window OPEN
- 79'corner (confirmed) inside window → YES
75'AShot in next 5 minYESresolved
- 75'window OPEN
- 79'shot (confirmed) inside window → YES
75'DTotal corners 15-min seg (O/U 4)UNDER (2)resolved
- 75'segment OPEN
- 90'counted 2 corner → UNDER
75'EHome possession O/U 50% (5min)UNDER (31%)resolved⚠
self-integrated from the Possession stream — basis (time-in-control vs danger heuristic) & final-vs-interim UNCONFIRMED by TxOdds.
- 75'window OPEN
- 80'integrated home 31% → UNDER
79'BCorner outcomecleared_no_shotresolved⚠
⚠ a shot landed 3.4s AFTER the 30.0s phase window — no set-piece id means it can't be excluded with certainty; window length is a guess.
- 79'corner_awarded → OPEN
- 79'LOCK +8.0s (no corner_taken marker)
- 79'phase window closes (+30.0s) → cleared_no_shot
79'CNext corner: home/awayP1resolved
- 79'OPEN (scheduler tick)
- 84'next corner → P1 (after 295.6s)
79'CNext throw-in: home/awayP2resolved
- 79'OPEN (scheduler tick)
- 80'next throw_in → P2 (after 52.6s)
80'AGoal in next 5 minNOresolved
- 80'window OPEN
- 85'window closed, no event → NO
80'ACorner in next 5 minYESresolved
- 80'window OPEN
- 84'corner (confirmed) inside window → YES
80'AShot in next 5 minYESresolved
- 80'window OPEN
- 84'shot (confirmed) inside window → YES
80'EHome possession O/U 50% (5min)OVER (69%)resolved⚠
self-integrated from the Possession stream — basis (time-in-control vs danger heuristic) & final-vs-interim UNCONFIRMED by TxOdds.
- 80'window OPEN
- 85'integrated home 69% → OVER
84'BCorner outcomeshot_no_goalresolved
- 84'corner_awarded → OPEN
- 84'LOCK +8.0s (no corner_taken marker)
- 84'phase window closes (+30.0s) → shot_no_goal
85'AGoal in next 5 minNOresolved
- 85'window OPEN
- 90'window closed, no event → NO
85'ACorner in next 5 minNOresolved
- 85'window OPEN
- 90'window closed, no event → NO
85'AShot in next 5 minYESresolved
- 85'window OPEN
- 85'shot (confirmed) inside window → YES
85'EHome possession O/U 50% (5min)OVER (63%)resolved⚠
self-integrated from the Possession stream — basis (time-in-control vs danger heuristic) & final-vs-interim UNCONFIRMED by TxOdds.
- 85'window OPEN
- 90'integrated home 63% → OVER
90'AGoal in next 5 minNOresolved
- 90'window OPEN
- 95'window closed, no event → NO
90'ACorner in next 5 minNOresolved
- 90'window OPEN
- 95'window closed, no event → NO
90'AShot in next 5 minNOresolved
- 90'window OPEN
- 95'window closed, no event → NO
90'DTotal corners 15-min seg (O/U 4)UNDER (2)resolved
- 90'segment OPEN
- 105'counted 2 corner → UNDER
90'EHome possession O/U 50% (5min)OVER (68%)resolved⚠
self-integrated from the Possession stream — basis (time-in-control vs danger heuristic) & final-vs-interim UNCONFIRMED by TxOdds.
- 90'window OPEN
- 95'integrated home 68% → OVER
95'AGoal in next 5 minNOresolved
- 95'window OPEN
- 100'window closed, no event → NO
95'ACorner in next 5 minNOresolved
- 95'window OPEN
- 100'window closed, no event → NO
95'AShot in next 5 minYESresolved
- 95'window OPEN
- 99'shot (confirmed) inside window → YES
95'EHome possession O/U 50% (5min)UNDER (45%)resolved⚠
self-integrated from the Possession stream — basis (time-in-control vs danger heuristic) & final-vs-interim UNCONFIRMED by TxOdds.
- 95'window OPEN
- 100'integrated home 45% → UNDER
99'CNext corner: home/awayP1resolved
- 99'OPEN (scheduler tick)
- 104'next corner → P1 (after 296.8s)
99'CNext throw-in: home/awayP2resolved
- 99'OPEN (scheduler tick)
- 99'next throw_in → P2 (after 24.4s)
100'AGoal in next 5 minNOresolved
- 100'window OPEN
- 105'window closed, no event → NO
100'ACorner in next 5 minYESresolved
- 100'window OPEN
- 104'corner (confirmed) inside window → YES
100'AShot in next 5 minYESresolved
- 100'window OPEN
- 105'shot (confirmed) inside window → YES
100'EHome possession O/U 50% (5min)OVER (74%)resolved⚠
self-integrated from the Possession stream — basis (time-in-control vs danger heuristic) & final-vs-interim UNCONFIRMED by TxOdds.
- 100'window OPEN
- 105'integrated home 74% → OVER
104'BCorner outcomecleared_no_shotresolved
- 104'corner_awarded → OPEN
- 104'LOCK +8.0s (no corner_taken marker)
- 104'phase window closes (+30.0s) → cleared_no_shot
105'BCorner outcomecleared_no_shotresolved
- 105'corner_awarded → OPEN
- 105'LOCK +8.0s (no corner_taken marker)
- 105'phase window closes (+30.0s) → cleared_no_shot
105'AGoal in next 5 minYESresolved
- 105'window OPEN
- 108'goal (confirmed) inside window → YES
105'ACorner in next 5 minNOresolved
- 105'window OPEN
- 110'window closed, no event → NO
105'AShot in next 5 minNOresolved
- 105'window OPEN
- 110'window closed, no event → NO
105'DTotal corners 15-min seg (O/U 4)push
void: segment straddles a period boundary → push/prorate
- 105'segment OPEN
- 120'straddles boundary → PUSH
105'EHome possession O/U 50% (5min)OVER (52%)resolved⚠
self-integrated from the Possession stream — basis (time-in-control vs danger heuristic) & final-vs-interim UNCONFIRMED by TxOdds.
- 105'window OPEN
- 110'integrated home 52% → OVER
110'AGoal in next 5 minNOresolved
- 110'window OPEN
- 115'window closed, no event → NO
110'ACorner in next 5 minYESresolved
- 110'window OPEN
- 113'corner (confirmed) inside window → YES
110'AShot in next 5 minYESresolved
- 110'window OPEN
- 111'shot (confirmed) inside window → YES
110'EHome possession O/U 50% (5min)OVER (71%)resolved⚠
self-integrated from the Possession stream — basis (time-in-control vs danger heuristic) & final-vs-interim UNCONFIRMED by TxOdds.
- 110'window OPEN
- 115'integrated home 71% → OVER
113'BCorner outcomecleared_no_shotresolved
- 113'corner_awarded → OPEN
- 113'LOCK +8.0s (no corner_taken marker)
- 114'phase window closes (+30.0s) → cleared_no_shot
115'AGoal in next 5 minvoided
void: window straddles a period boundary (HT/FT)
- 115'window OPEN
115'ACorner in next 5 minvoided
void: window straddles a period boundary (HT/FT)
- 115'window OPEN
115'AShot in next 5 minvoided
void: window straddles a period boundary (HT/FT)
- 115'window OPEN
115'EHome possession O/U 50% (5min)voided
void: segment straddles a period boundary
- 115'window OPEN
- 120'straddles boundary → VOID
Workarounds applied (no real data exists): set-piece Lock = fixed 8s window after the award (no *_taken marker); corner-outcome phase = 30s window (no set-piece id); possession = self-integrated from the Possession stream (basis unconfirmed). The ⚠ flags are exactly where these guesses could mis-settle on real data.
