Settlement simulation
Slovenia vs Cyprus (1–1) · fixture #17952170 replayed through the PulsePlay A–E market state machines · 124 market instances · 25 gap-bites (settlement-integrity risks from the missing-data workarounds).
Per-archetype outcomes
A · Rolling window
69 instances
63 resolved
6 voided
B · Set-piece outcome
12 instances
12 resolved
⚠ 4 gap-bites
C · Next-event
12 instances
12 resolved
D · Segment O/U
8 instances
6 resolved
2 push
E · Possession
23 instances
21 resolved
2 voided
⚠ 21 gap-bites
Market instances
124 shown0'AGoal in next 5 minNOresolved
- 0'window OPEN
- 5'window closed, no event → NO
0'ACorner in next 5 minNOresolved
- 0'window OPEN
- 5'window closed, no event → NO
0'AShot in next 5 minYESresolved
- 0'window OPEN
- 2'shot (confirmed) inside window → YES
0'DTotal corners 15-min seg (O/U 4)UNDER (1)resolved
- 0'segment OPEN
- 15'counted 1 corner → UNDER
0'CNext corner: home/awayP1resolved
- 0'OPEN (scheduler tick)
- 11'next corner → P1 (after 656.8s)
0'CNext throw-in: home/awayP2resolved
- 0'OPEN (scheduler tick)
- 1'next throw_in → P2 (after 67.7s)
0'EHome possession O/U 50% (5min)OVER (54%)resolved⚠
self-integrated from the Possession stream — basis (time-in-control vs danger heuristic) & final-vs-interim UNCONFIRMED by TxOdds.
- 0'window OPEN
- 5'integrated home 54% → OVER
5'AGoal in next 5 minYESresolved
- 5'window OPEN
- 7'goal (confirmed) inside window → YES
5'ACorner in next 5 minNOresolved
- 5'window OPEN
- 10'window closed, no event → NO
5'AShot in next 5 minYESresolved
- 5'window OPEN
- 6'shot (confirmed) inside window → YES
5'EHome possession O/U 50% (5min)UNDER (44%)resolved⚠
self-integrated from the Possession stream — basis (time-in-control vs danger heuristic) & final-vs-interim UNCONFIRMED by TxOdds.
- 5'window OPEN
- 10'integrated home 44% → UNDER
10'AGoal in next 5 minNOresolved
- 10'window OPEN
- 15'window closed, no event → NO
10'ACorner in next 5 minYESresolved
- 10'window OPEN
- 11'corner (confirmed) inside window → YES
10'AShot in next 5 minNOresolved
- 10'window OPEN
- 15'window closed, no event → NO
10'EHome possession O/U 50% (5min)OVER (81%)resolved⚠
self-integrated from the Possession stream — basis (time-in-control vs danger heuristic) & final-vs-interim UNCONFIRMED by TxOdds.
- 10'window OPEN
- 15'integrated home 81% → OVER
11'BCorner outcomecleared_no_shotresolved
- 11'corner_awarded → OPEN
- 11'LOCK +8.0s (no corner_taken marker)
- 11'phase window closes (+30.0s) → cleared_no_shot
15'AGoal in next 5 minNOresolved
- 15'window OPEN
- 20'window closed, no event → NO
15'ACorner in next 5 minYESresolved
- 15'window OPEN
- 19'corner (confirmed) inside window → YES
15'AShot in next 5 minYESresolved
- 15'window OPEN
- 18'shot (confirmed) inside window → YES
15'DTotal corners 15-min seg (O/U 4)UNDER (1)resolved
- 15'segment OPEN
- 30'counted 1 corner → UNDER
15'EHome possession O/U 50% (5min)OVER (73%)resolved⚠
self-integrated from the Possession stream — basis (time-in-control vs danger heuristic) & final-vs-interim UNCONFIRMED by TxOdds.
- 15'window OPEN
- 20'integrated home 73% → OVER
19'BCorner outcomecleared_no_shotresolved
- 19'corner_awarded → OPEN
- 19'LOCK +8.0s (no corner_taken marker)
- 19'phase window closes (+30.0s) → cleared_no_shot
19'CNext corner: home/awayP1resolved
- 19'OPEN (scheduler tick)
- 32'next corner → P1 (after 812.3s)
19'CNext throw-in: home/awayP2resolved
- 19'OPEN (scheduler tick)
- 23'next throw_in → P2 (after 247.7s)
20'AGoal in next 5 minNOresolved
- 20'window OPEN
- 25'window closed, no event → NO
20'ACorner in next 5 minNOresolved
- 20'window OPEN
- 25'window closed, no event → NO
20'AShot in next 5 minNOresolved
- 20'window OPEN
- 25'window closed, no event → NO
20'EHome possession O/U 50% (5min)UNDER (26%)resolved⚠
self-integrated from the Possession stream — basis (time-in-control vs danger heuristic) & final-vs-interim UNCONFIRMED by TxOdds.
- 20'window OPEN
- 25'integrated home 26% → UNDER
25'AGoal in next 5 minNOresolved
- 25'window OPEN
- 30'window closed, no event → NO
25'ACorner in next 5 minNOresolved
- 25'window OPEN
- 30'window closed, no event → NO
25'AShot in next 5 minYESresolved
- 25'window OPEN
- 26'shot (confirmed) inside window → YES
25'EHome possession O/U 50% (5min)OVER (82%)resolved⚠
self-integrated from the Possession stream — basis (time-in-control vs danger heuristic) & final-vs-interim UNCONFIRMED by TxOdds.
- 25'window OPEN
- 30'integrated home 82% → OVER
30'AGoal in next 5 minNOresolved
- 30'window OPEN
- 35'window closed, no event → NO
30'ACorner in next 5 minYESresolved
- 30'window OPEN
- 32'corner (confirmed) inside window → YES
30'AShot in next 5 minYESresolved
- 30'window OPEN
- 32'shot (confirmed) inside window → YES
30'DTotal corners 15-min seg (O/U 4)UNDER (2)resolved
- 30'segment OPEN
- 45'counted 2 corner → UNDER
30'EHome possession O/U 50% (5min)OVER (60%)resolved⚠
self-integrated from the Possession stream — basis (time-in-control vs danger heuristic) & final-vs-interim UNCONFIRMED by TxOdds.
- 30'window OPEN
- 35'integrated home 60% → OVER
32'BCorner outcomecleared_no_shotresolved
- 32'corner_awarded → OPEN
- 33'LOCK +8.0s (no corner_taken marker)
- 33'phase window closes (+30.0s) → cleared_no_shot
35'AGoal in next 5 minNOresolved
- 35'window OPEN
- 40'window closed, no event → NO
35'ACorner in next 5 minNOresolved
- 35'window OPEN
- 40'window closed, no event → NO
35'AShot in next 5 minYESresolved
- 35'window OPEN
- 36'shot (confirmed) inside window → YES
35'EHome possession O/U 50% (5min)OVER (53%)resolved⚠
self-integrated from the Possession stream — basis (time-in-control vs danger heuristic) & final-vs-interim UNCONFIRMED by TxOdds.
- 35'window OPEN
- 40'integrated home 53% → OVER
38'CNext corner: home/awayP2resolved
- 38'OPEN (scheduler tick)
- 43'next corner → P2 (after 306.6s)
38'CNext throw-in: home/awayP1resolved
- 38'OPEN (scheduler tick)
- 40'next throw_in → P1 (after 106.0s)
40'AGoal in next 5 minNOresolved
- 40'window OPEN
- 45'window closed, no event → NO
40'ACorner in next 5 minYESresolved
- 40'window OPEN
- 43'corner (confirmed) inside window → YES
40'AShot in next 5 minYESresolved
- 40'window OPEN
- 44'shot (confirmed) inside window → YES
40'EHome possession O/U 50% (5min)UNDER (31%)resolved⚠
self-integrated from the Possession stream — basis (time-in-control vs danger heuristic) & final-vs-interim UNCONFIRMED by TxOdds.
- 40'window OPEN
- 45'integrated home 31% → UNDER
43'BCorner outcomecleared_no_shotresolved⚠
⚠ a shot landed 5.9s AFTER the 30.0s phase window — no set-piece id means it can't be excluded with certainty; window length is a guess.
- 43'corner_awarded → OPEN
- 43'LOCK +8.0s (no corner_taken marker)
- 43'phase window closes (+30.0s) → cleared_no_shot
45'AGoal in next 5 minvoided
void: window straddles a period boundary (HT/FT)
- 45'window OPEN
45'ACorner in next 5 minvoided
void: window straddles a period boundary (HT/FT)
- 45'window OPEN
45'AShot in next 5 minvoided
void: window straddles a period boundary (HT/FT)
- 45'window OPEN
45'DTotal corners 15-min seg (O/U 4)push
void: segment straddles a period boundary → push/prorate
- 45'segment OPEN
- 60'straddles boundary → PUSH
45'EHome possession O/U 50% (5min)voided
void: segment straddles a period boundary
- 45'window OPEN
- 50'straddles boundary → VOID
50'AGoal in next 5 minNOresolved
- 50'window OPEN
- 55'window closed, no event → NO
50'ACorner in next 5 minNOresolved
- 50'window OPEN
- 55'window closed, no event → NO
50'AShot in next 5 minNOresolved
- 50'window OPEN
- 55'window closed, no event → NO
50'EHome possession O/U 50% (5min)OVER (100%)resolved⚠
self-integrated from the Possession stream — basis (time-in-control vs danger heuristic) & final-vs-interim UNCONFIRMED by TxOdds.
- 50'window OPEN
- 55'integrated home 100% → OVER
55'AGoal in next 5 minNOresolved
- 55'window OPEN
- 60'window closed, no event → NO
55'ACorner in next 5 minNOresolved
- 55'window OPEN
- 60'window closed, no event → NO
55'AShot in next 5 minNOresolved
- 55'window OPEN
- 60'window closed, no event → NO
55'EHome possession O/U 50% (5min)OVER (100%)resolved⚠
self-integrated from the Possession stream — basis (time-in-control vs danger heuristic) & final-vs-interim UNCONFIRMED by TxOdds.
- 55'window OPEN
- 60'integrated home 100% → OVER
57'CNext corner: home/awayP1resolved
- 57'OPEN (scheduler tick)
- 69'next corner → P1 (after 713.2s)
57'CNext throw-in: home/awayP2resolved
- 57'OPEN (scheduler tick)
- 64'next throw_in → P2 (after 453.2s)
60'AGoal in next 5 minNOresolved
- 60'window OPEN
- 65'window closed, no event → NO
60'ACorner in next 5 minNOresolved
- 60'window OPEN
- 65'window closed, no event → NO
60'AShot in next 5 minYESresolved
- 60'window OPEN
- 65'shot (confirmed) inside window → YES
60'DTotal corners 15-min seg (O/U 4)UNDER (1)resolved
- 60'segment OPEN
- 75'counted 1 corner → UNDER
60'EHome possession O/U 50% (5min)OVER (95%)resolved⚠
self-integrated from the Possession stream — basis (time-in-control vs danger heuristic) & final-vs-interim UNCONFIRMED by TxOdds.
- 60'window OPEN
- 65'integrated home 95% → OVER
65'AGoal in next 5 minNOresolved
- 65'window OPEN
- 70'window closed, no event → NO
65'ACorner in next 5 minYESresolved
- 65'window OPEN
- 69'corner (confirmed) inside window → YES
65'AShot in next 5 minYESresolved
- 65'window OPEN
- 68'shot (confirmed) inside window → YES
65'EHome possession O/U 50% (5min)UNDER (48%)resolved⚠
self-integrated from the Possession stream — basis (time-in-control vs danger heuristic) & final-vs-interim UNCONFIRMED by TxOdds.
- 65'window OPEN
- 70'integrated home 48% → UNDER
69'BCorner outcomecleared_no_shotresolved
- 69'corner_awarded → OPEN
- 69'LOCK +8.0s (no corner_taken marker)
- 69'phase window closes (+30.0s) → cleared_no_shot
70'AGoal in next 5 minNOresolved
- 70'window OPEN
- 75'window closed, no event → NO
70'ACorner in next 5 minNOresolved
- 70'window OPEN
- 75'window closed, no event → NO
70'AShot in next 5 minYESresolved
- 70'window OPEN
- 72'shot (confirmed) inside window → YES
70'EHome possession O/U 50% (5min)OVER (86%)resolved⚠
self-integrated from the Possession stream — basis (time-in-control vs danger heuristic) & final-vs-interim UNCONFIRMED by TxOdds.
- 70'window OPEN
- 75'integrated home 86% → OVER
75'AGoal in next 5 minNOresolved
- 75'window OPEN
- 80'window closed, no event → NO
75'ACorner in next 5 minYESresolved
- 75'window OPEN
- 75'corner (confirmed) inside window → YES
75'AShot in next 5 minYESresolved
- 75'window OPEN
- 76'shot (confirmed) inside window → YES
75'DTotal corners 15-min seg (O/U 4)UNDER (4)resolved
- 75'segment OPEN
- 90'counted 4 corner → UNDER
75'EHome possession O/U 50% (5min)OVER (78%)resolved⚠
self-integrated from the Possession stream — basis (time-in-control vs danger heuristic) & final-vs-interim UNCONFIRMED by TxOdds.
- 75'window OPEN
- 80'integrated home 78% → OVER
75'BCorner outcomecleared_no_shotresolved⚠
⚠ a shot landed 2.5s AFTER the 30.0s phase window — no set-piece id means it can't be excluded with certainty; window length is a guess.
- 75'corner_awarded → OPEN
- 75'LOCK +8.0s (no corner_taken marker)
- 76'phase window closes (+30.0s) → cleared_no_shot
76'CNext corner: home/awayP1resolved
- 76'OPEN (scheduler tick)
- 77'next corner → P1 (after 109.6s)
76'CNext throw-in: home/awayP2resolved
- 76'OPEN (scheduler tick)
- 92'next throw_in → P2 (after 959.3s)
77'BCorner outcomecleared_no_shotresolved
- 77'corner_awarded → OPEN
- 78'LOCK +8.0s (no corner_taken marker)
- 78'phase window closes (+30.0s) → cleared_no_shot
80'AGoal in next 5 minNOresolved
- 80'window OPEN
- 85'window closed, no event → NO
80'ACorner in next 5 minYESresolved
- 80'window OPEN
- 83'corner (confirmed) inside window → YES
80'AShot in next 5 minYESresolved
- 80'window OPEN
- 83'shot (confirmed) inside window → YES
80'EHome possession O/U 50% (5min)UNDER (50%)resolved⚠
self-integrated from the Possession stream — basis (time-in-control vs danger heuristic) & final-vs-interim UNCONFIRMED by TxOdds.
- 80'window OPEN
- 85'integrated home 50% → UNDER
83'BCorner outcomecleared_no_shotresolved⚠
⚠ a shot landed 7.0s AFTER the 30.0s phase window — no set-piece id means it can't be excluded with certainty; window length is a guess.
- 83'corner_awarded → OPEN
- 83'LOCK +8.0s (no corner_taken marker)
- 84'phase window closes (+30.0s) → cleared_no_shot
85'AGoal in next 5 minYESresolved
- 85'window OPEN
- 85'goal (confirmed) inside window → YES
85'ACorner in next 5 minYESresolved
- 85'window OPEN
- 86'corner (confirmed) inside window → YES
85'AShot in next 5 minYESresolved
- 85'window OPEN
- 85'shot (confirmed) inside window → YES
85'EHome possession O/U 50% (5min)OVER (61%)resolved⚠
self-integrated from the Possession stream — basis (time-in-control vs danger heuristic) & final-vs-interim UNCONFIRMED by TxOdds.
- 85'window OPEN
- 90'integrated home 61% → OVER
86'BCorner outcomecleared_no_shotresolved
- 86'corner_awarded → OPEN
- 86'LOCK +8.0s (no corner_taken marker)
- 86'phase window closes (+30.0s) → cleared_no_shot
90'AGoal in next 5 minNOresolved
- 90'window OPEN
- 95'window closed, no event → NO
90'ACorner in next 5 minYESresolved
- 90'window OPEN
- 95'corner (confirmed) inside window → YES
90'AShot in next 5 minYESresolved
- 90'window OPEN
- 94'shot (confirmed) inside window → YES
90'DTotal corners 15-min seg (O/U 4)UNDER (3)resolved
- 90'segment OPEN
- 105'counted 3 corner → UNDER
90'EHome possession O/U 50% (5min)UNDER (45%)resolved⚠
self-integrated from the Possession stream — basis (time-in-control vs danger heuristic) & final-vs-interim UNCONFIRMED by TxOdds.
- 90'window OPEN
- 95'integrated home 45% → UNDER
94'CNext corner: home/awayP1resolved
- 94'OPEN (scheduler tick)
- 95'next corner → P1 (after 11.5s)
94'CNext throw-in: home/awayP1resolved
- 94'OPEN (scheduler tick)
- 99'next throw_in → P1 (after 263.1s)
95'BCorner outcomeshot_no_goalresolved⚠
⚠ a shot landed 7.0s AFTER the 30.0s phase window — no set-piece id means it can't be excluded with certainty; window length is a guess.
- 95'corner_awarded → OPEN
- 95'LOCK +8.0s (no corner_taken marker)
- 95'phase window closes (+30.0s) → shot_no_goal
95'AGoal in next 5 minNOresolved
- 95'window OPEN
- 100'window closed, no event → NO
95'ACorner in next 5 minYESresolved
- 95'window OPEN
- 95'corner (confirmed) inside window → YES
95'AShot in next 5 minYESresolved
- 95'window OPEN
- 95'shot (confirmed) inside window → YES
95'EHome possession O/U 50% (5min)OVER (58%)resolved⚠
self-integrated from the Possession stream — basis (time-in-control vs danger heuristic) & final-vs-interim UNCONFIRMED by TxOdds.
- 95'window OPEN
- 100'integrated home 58% → OVER
95'BCorner outcomeshot_no_goalresolved
- 95'corner_awarded → OPEN
- 95'LOCK +8.0s (no corner_taken marker)
- 96'phase window closes (+30.0s) → shot_no_goal
100'AGoal in next 5 minNOresolved
- 100'window OPEN
- 105'window closed, no event → NO
100'ACorner in next 5 minYESresolved
- 100'window OPEN
- 102'corner (confirmed) inside window → YES
100'AShot in next 5 minYESresolved
- 100'window OPEN
- 102'shot (confirmed) inside window → YES
100'EHome possession O/U 50% (5min)OVER (88%)resolved⚠
self-integrated from the Possession stream — basis (time-in-control vs danger heuristic) & final-vs-interim UNCONFIRMED by TxOdds.
- 100'window OPEN
- 105'integrated home 88% → OVER
102'BCorner outcomecleared_no_shotresolved
- 102'corner_awarded → OPEN
- 102'LOCK +8.0s (no corner_taken marker)
- 102'phase window closes (+30.0s) → cleared_no_shot
105'AGoal in next 5 minNOresolved
- 105'window OPEN
- 110'window closed, no event → NO
105'ACorner in next 5 minNOresolved
- 105'window OPEN
- 110'window closed, no event → NO
105'AShot in next 5 minYESresolved
- 105'window OPEN
- 106'shot (confirmed) inside window → YES
105'DTotal corners 15-min seg (O/U 4)push
void: segment straddles a period boundary → push/prorate
- 105'segment OPEN
- 120'straddles boundary → PUSH
105'EHome possession O/U 50% (5min)UNDER (41%)resolved⚠
self-integrated from the Possession stream — basis (time-in-control vs danger heuristic) & final-vs-interim UNCONFIRMED by TxOdds.
- 105'window OPEN
- 110'integrated home 41% → UNDER
110'AGoal in next 5 minvoided
void: window straddles a period boundary (HT/FT)
- 110'window OPEN
110'ACorner in next 5 minvoided
void: window straddles a period boundary (HT/FT)
- 110'window OPEN
110'AShot in next 5 minvoided
void: window straddles a period boundary (HT/FT)
- 110'window OPEN
110'EHome possession O/U 50% (5min)voided
void: segment straddles a period boundary
- 110'window OPEN
- 115'straddles boundary → VOID
Workarounds applied (no real data exists): set-piece Lock = fixed 8s window after the award (no *_taken marker); corner-outcome phase = 30s window (no set-piece id); possession = self-integrated from the Possession stream (basis unconfirmed). The ⚠ flags are exactly where these guesses could mis-settle on real data.
