Settlement simulation
Morocco vs Norway (1–1) · fixture #17962578 replayed through the PulsePlay A–E market state machines · 128 market instances · 22 gap-bites (settlement-integrity risks from the missing-data workarounds).
Per-archetype outcomes
A · Rolling window
72 instances
66 resolved
6 voided
B · Set-piece outcome
12 instances
12 resolved
C · Next-event
12 instances
12 resolved
D · Segment O/U
8 instances
6 resolved
2 push
E · Possession
24 instances
22 resolved
2 voided
⚠ 22 gap-bites
Market instances
128 shown0'AGoal in next 5 minNOresolved
- 0'window OPEN
- 5'window closed, no event → NO
0'ACorner in next 5 minNOresolved
- 0'window OPEN
- 5'window closed, no event → NO
0'AShot in next 5 minYESresolved
- 0'window OPEN
- 2'shot (confirmed) inside window → YES
0'DTotal corners 15-min seg (O/U 4)UNDER (2)resolved
- 0'segment OPEN
- 15'counted 2 corner → UNDER
0'CNext corner: home/awayP2resolved
- 0'OPEN (scheduler tick)
- 13'next corner → P2 (after 760.8s)
0'CNext throw-in: home/awayP2resolved
- 0'OPEN (scheduler tick)
- 0'next throw_in → P2 (after 12.9s)
0'EHome possession O/U 50% (5min)OVER (51%)resolved⚠
self-integrated from the Possession stream — basis (time-in-control vs danger heuristic) & final-vs-interim UNCONFIRMED by TxOdds.
- 0'window OPEN
- 5'integrated home 51% → OVER
5'AGoal in next 5 minYESresolved
- 5'window OPEN
- 8'goal (confirmed) inside window → YES
5'ACorner in next 5 minNOresolved
- 5'window OPEN
- 10'window closed, no event → NO
5'AShot in next 5 minYESresolved
- 5'window OPEN
- 9'shot (confirmed) inside window → YES
5'EHome possession O/U 50% (5min)UNDER (32%)resolved⚠
self-integrated from the Possession stream — basis (time-in-control vs danger heuristic) & final-vs-interim UNCONFIRMED by TxOdds.
- 5'window OPEN
- 10'integrated home 32% → UNDER
10'AGoal in next 5 minNOresolved
- 10'window OPEN
- 15'window closed, no event → NO
10'ACorner in next 5 minYESresolved
- 10'window OPEN
- 13'corner (confirmed) inside window → YES
10'AShot in next 5 minYESresolved
- 10'window OPEN
- 12'shot (confirmed) inside window → YES
10'EHome possession O/U 50% (5min)UNDER (25%)resolved⚠
self-integrated from the Possession stream — basis (time-in-control vs danger heuristic) & final-vs-interim UNCONFIRMED by TxOdds.
- 10'window OPEN
- 15'integrated home 25% → UNDER
13'BCorner outcomeanother_corner_wonresolved
- 13'corner_awarded → OPEN
- 13'LOCK +8.0s (no corner_taken marker)
- 13'phase window closes (+30.0s) → another_corner_won
13'BCorner outcomecleared_no_shotresolved
- 13'corner_awarded → OPEN
- 13'LOCK +8.0s (no corner_taken marker)
- 13'phase window closes (+30.0s) → cleared_no_shot
15'AGoal in next 5 minNOresolved
- 15'window OPEN
- 20'window closed, no event → NO
15'ACorner in next 5 minNOresolved
- 15'window OPEN
- 20'window closed, no event → NO
15'AShot in next 5 minYESresolved
- 15'window OPEN
- 16'shot (confirmed) inside window → YES
15'DTotal corners 15-min seg (O/U 4)UNDER (1)resolved
- 15'segment OPEN
- 30'counted 1 corner → UNDER
15'EHome possession O/U 50% (5min)OVER (59%)resolved⚠
self-integrated from the Possession stream — basis (time-in-control vs danger heuristic) & final-vs-interim UNCONFIRMED by TxOdds.
- 15'window OPEN
- 20'integrated home 59% → OVER
19'CNext corner: home/awayP2resolved
- 19'OPEN (scheduler tick)
- 23'next corner → P2 (after 201.4s)
19'CNext throw-in: home/awayP1resolved
- 19'OPEN (scheduler tick)
- 21'next throw_in → P1 (after 117.5s)
20'AGoal in next 5 minNOresolved
- 20'window OPEN
- 25'window closed, no event → NO
20'ACorner in next 5 minYESresolved
- 20'window OPEN
- 23'corner (confirmed) inside window → YES
20'AShot in next 5 minYESresolved
- 20'window OPEN
- 22'shot (confirmed) inside window → YES
20'EHome possession O/U 50% (5min)UNDER (18%)resolved⚠
self-integrated from the Possession stream — basis (time-in-control vs danger heuristic) & final-vs-interim UNCONFIRMED by TxOdds.
- 20'window OPEN
- 25'integrated home 18% → UNDER
23'BCorner outcomecleared_no_shotresolved
- 23'corner_awarded → OPEN
- 23'LOCK +8.0s (no corner_taken marker)
- 23'phase window closes (+30.0s) → cleared_no_shot
25'AGoal in next 5 minNOresolved
- 25'window OPEN
- 30'window closed, no event → NO
25'ACorner in next 5 minNOresolved
- 25'window OPEN
- 30'window closed, no event → NO
25'AShot in next 5 minNOresolved
- 25'window OPEN
- 30'window closed, no event → NO
25'EHome possession O/U 50% (5min)UNDER (20%)resolved⚠
self-integrated from the Possession stream — basis (time-in-control vs danger heuristic) & final-vs-interim UNCONFIRMED by TxOdds.
- 25'window OPEN
- 30'integrated home 20% → UNDER
30'AGoal in next 5 minNOresolved
- 30'window OPEN
- 35'window closed, no event → NO
30'ACorner in next 5 minYESresolved
- 30'window OPEN
- 34'corner (confirmed) inside window → YES
30'AShot in next 5 minYESresolved
- 30'window OPEN
- 34'shot (confirmed) inside window → YES
30'DTotal corners 15-min seg (O/U 4)UNDER (3)resolved
- 30'segment OPEN
- 45'counted 3 corner → UNDER
30'EHome possession O/U 50% (5min)UNDER (38%)resolved⚠
self-integrated from the Possession stream — basis (time-in-control vs danger heuristic) & final-vs-interim UNCONFIRMED by TxOdds.
- 30'window OPEN
- 35'integrated home 38% → UNDER
34'BCorner outcomecleared_no_shotresolved
- 34'corner_awarded → OPEN
- 34'LOCK +8.0s (no corner_taken marker)
- 35'phase window closes (+30.0s) → cleared_no_shot
35'AGoal in next 5 minNOresolved
- 35'window OPEN
- 40'window closed, no event → NO
35'ACorner in next 5 minYESresolved
- 35'window OPEN
- 35'corner (confirmed) inside window → YES
35'AShot in next 5 minYESresolved
- 35'window OPEN
- 35'shot (confirmed) inside window → YES
35'EHome possession O/U 50% (5min)OVER (74%)resolved⚠
self-integrated from the Possession stream — basis (time-in-control vs danger heuristic) & final-vs-interim UNCONFIRMED by TxOdds.
- 35'window OPEN
- 40'integrated home 74% → OVER
35'BCorner outcomecleared_no_shotresolved
- 35'corner_awarded → OPEN
- 36'LOCK +8.0s (no corner_taken marker)
- 36'phase window closes (+30.0s) → cleared_no_shot
39'CNext corner: home/awayP2resolved
- 39'OPEN (scheduler tick)
- 45'next corner → P2 (after 369.2s)
39'CNext throw-in: home/awayP1resolved
- 39'OPEN (scheduler tick)
- 40'next throw_in → P1 (after 41.6s)
40'AGoal in next 5 minNOresolved
- 40'window OPEN
- 45'window closed, no event → NO
40'ACorner in next 5 minYESresolved
- 40'window OPEN
- 45'corner (confirmed) inside window → YES
40'AShot in next 5 minYESresolved
- 40'window OPEN
- 41'shot (confirmed) inside window → YES
40'EHome possession O/U 50% (5min)UNDER (33%)resolved⚠
self-integrated from the Possession stream — basis (time-in-control vs danger heuristic) & final-vs-interim UNCONFIRMED by TxOdds.
- 40'window OPEN
- 45'integrated home 33% → UNDER
45'BCorner outcomecleared_no_shotresolved
- 45'corner_awarded → OPEN
- 45'LOCK +8.0s (no corner_taken marker)
- 45'phase window closes (+30.0s) → cleared_no_shot
45'AGoal in next 5 minNOresolved
- 45'window OPEN
- 50'window closed, no event → NO
45'ACorner in next 5 minYESresolved
- 45'window OPEN
- 49'corner (confirmed) inside window → YES
45'AShot in next 5 minYESresolved
- 45'window OPEN
- 46'shot (confirmed) inside window → YES
45'DTotal corners 15-min seg (O/U 4)push
void: segment straddles a period boundary → push/prorate
- 45'segment OPEN
- 60'straddles boundary → PUSH
45'EHome possession O/U 50% (5min)UNDER (17%)resolved⚠
self-integrated from the Possession stream — basis (time-in-control vs danger heuristic) & final-vs-interim UNCONFIRMED by TxOdds.
- 45'window OPEN
- 50'integrated home 17% → UNDER
49'BCorner outcomeshot_no_goalresolved
- 49'corner_awarded → OPEN
- 49'LOCK +8.0s (no corner_taken marker)
- 49'phase window closes (+30.0s) → shot_no_goal
50'AGoal in next 5 minvoided
void: window straddles a period boundary (HT/FT)
- 50'window OPEN
50'ACorner in next 5 minvoided
void: window straddles a period boundary (HT/FT)
- 50'window OPEN
50'AShot in next 5 minvoided
void: window straddles a period boundary (HT/FT)
- 50'window OPEN
50'EHome possession O/U 50% (5min)voided
void: segment straddles a period boundary
- 50'window OPEN
- 55'straddles boundary → VOID
55'AGoal in next 5 minNOresolved
- 55'window OPEN
- 60'window closed, no event → NO
55'ACorner in next 5 minNOresolved
- 55'window OPEN
- 60'window closed, no event → NO
55'AShot in next 5 minNOresolved
- 55'window OPEN
- 60'window closed, no event → NO
55'EHome possession O/U 50% (5min)UNDER (0%)resolved⚠
self-integrated from the Possession stream — basis (time-in-control vs danger heuristic) & final-vs-interim UNCONFIRMED by TxOdds.
- 55'window OPEN
- 60'integrated home 0% → UNDER
58'CNext corner: home/awayP2resolved
- 58'OPEN (scheduler tick)
- 72'next corner → P2 (after 834.4s)
58'CNext throw-in: home/awayP1resolved
- 58'OPEN (scheduler tick)
- 76'next throw_in → P1 (after 1082.6s)
60'AGoal in next 5 minNOresolved
- 60'window OPEN
- 65'window closed, no event → NO
60'ACorner in next 5 minNOresolved
- 60'window OPEN
- 65'window closed, no event → NO
60'AShot in next 5 minNOresolved
- 60'window OPEN
- 65'window closed, no event → NO
60'DTotal corners 15-min seg (O/U 4)UNDER (2)resolved
- 60'segment OPEN
- 75'counted 2 corner → UNDER
60'EHome possession O/U 50% (5min)UNDER (0%)resolved⚠
self-integrated from the Possession stream — basis (time-in-control vs danger heuristic) & final-vs-interim UNCONFIRMED by TxOdds.
- 60'window OPEN
- 65'integrated home 0% → UNDER
65'AGoal in next 5 minNOresolved
- 65'window OPEN
- 70'window closed, no event → NO
65'ACorner in next 5 minNOresolved
- 65'window OPEN
- 70'window closed, no event → NO
65'AShot in next 5 minNOresolved
- 65'window OPEN
- 70'window closed, no event → NO
65'EHome possession O/U 50% (5min)UNDER (0%)resolved⚠
self-integrated from the Possession stream — basis (time-in-control vs danger heuristic) & final-vs-interim UNCONFIRMED by TxOdds.
- 65'window OPEN
- 70'integrated home 0% → UNDER
70'AGoal in next 5 minNOresolved
- 70'window OPEN
- 75'window closed, no event → NO
70'ACorner in next 5 minYESresolved
- 70'window OPEN
- 72'corner (confirmed) inside window → YES
70'AShot in next 5 minYESresolved
- 70'window OPEN
- 72'shot (confirmed) inside window → YES
70'EHome possession O/U 50% (5min)UNDER (19%)resolved⚠
self-integrated from the Possession stream — basis (time-in-control vs danger heuristic) & final-vs-interim UNCONFIRMED by TxOdds.
- 70'window OPEN
- 75'integrated home 19% → UNDER
72'BCorner outcomecleared_no_shotresolved
- 72'corner_awarded → OPEN
- 72'LOCK +8.0s (no corner_taken marker)
- 73'phase window closes (+30.0s) → cleared_no_shot
73'BCorner outcomecleared_no_shotresolved
- 73'corner_awarded → OPEN
- 73'LOCK +8.0s (no corner_taken marker)
- 73'phase window closes (+30.0s) → cleared_no_shot
75'AGoal in next 5 minNOresolved
- 75'window OPEN
- 80'window closed, no event → NO
75'ACorner in next 5 minNOresolved
- 75'window OPEN
- 80'window closed, no event → NO
75'AShot in next 5 minNOresolved
- 75'window OPEN
- 80'window closed, no event → NO
75'DTotal corners 15-min seg (O/U 4)UNDER (2)resolved
- 75'segment OPEN
- 90'counted 2 corner → UNDER
75'EHome possession O/U 50% (5min)UNDER (32%)resolved⚠
self-integrated from the Possession stream — basis (time-in-control vs danger heuristic) & final-vs-interim UNCONFIRMED by TxOdds.
- 75'window OPEN
- 80'integrated home 32% → UNDER
78'CNext corner: home/awayP1resolved
- 78'OPEN (scheduler tick)
- 82'next corner → P1 (after 234.6s)
78'CNext throw-in: home/awayP2resolved
- 78'OPEN (scheduler tick)
- 78'next throw_in → P2 (after 10.8s)
80'AGoal in next 5 minNOresolved
- 80'window OPEN
- 85'window closed, no event → NO
80'ACorner in next 5 minYESresolved
- 80'window OPEN
- 82'corner (confirmed) inside window → YES
80'AShot in next 5 minYESresolved
- 80'window OPEN
- 82'shot (confirmed) inside window → YES
80'EHome possession O/U 50% (5min)UNDER (46%)resolved⚠
self-integrated from the Possession stream — basis (time-in-control vs danger heuristic) & final-vs-interim UNCONFIRMED by TxOdds.
- 80'window OPEN
- 85'integrated home 46% → UNDER
82'BCorner outcomecleared_no_shotresolved
- 82'corner_awarded → OPEN
- 82'LOCK +8.0s (no corner_taken marker)
- 82'phase window closes (+30.0s) → cleared_no_shot
85'AGoal in next 5 minNOresolved
- 85'window OPEN
- 90'window closed, no event → NO
85'ACorner in next 5 minYESresolved
- 85'window OPEN
- 86'corner (confirmed) inside window → YES
85'AShot in next 5 minYESresolved
- 85'window OPEN
- 86'shot (confirmed) inside window → YES
85'EHome possession O/U 50% (5min)UNDER (15%)resolved⚠
self-integrated from the Possession stream — basis (time-in-control vs danger heuristic) & final-vs-interim UNCONFIRMED by TxOdds.
- 85'window OPEN
- 90'integrated home 15% → UNDER
86'BCorner outcomecleared_no_shotresolved
- 86'corner_awarded → OPEN
- 86'LOCK +8.0s (no corner_taken marker)
- 86'phase window closes (+30.0s) → cleared_no_shot
90'AGoal in next 5 minNOresolved
- 90'window OPEN
- 95'window closed, no event → NO
90'ACorner in next 5 minNOresolved
- 90'window OPEN
- 95'window closed, no event → NO
90'AShot in next 5 minYESresolved
- 90'window OPEN
- 92'shot (confirmed) inside window → YES
90'DTotal corners 15-min seg (O/U 4)UNDER (0)resolved
- 90'segment OPEN
- 105'counted 0 corner → UNDER
90'EHome possession O/U 50% (5min)OVER (69%)resolved⚠
self-integrated from the Possession stream — basis (time-in-control vs danger heuristic) & final-vs-interim UNCONFIRMED by TxOdds.
- 90'window OPEN
- 95'integrated home 69% → OVER
95'AGoal in next 5 minNOresolved
- 95'window OPEN
- 100'window closed, no event → NO
95'ACorner in next 5 minNOresolved
- 95'window OPEN
- 100'window closed, no event → NO
95'AShot in next 5 minNOresolved
- 95'window OPEN
- 100'window closed, no event → NO
95'EHome possession O/U 50% (5min)OVER (83%)resolved⚠
self-integrated from the Possession stream — basis (time-in-control vs danger heuristic) & final-vs-interim UNCONFIRMED by TxOdds.
- 95'window OPEN
- 100'integrated home 83% → OVER
97'CNext corner: home/awayP2resolved
- 97'OPEN (scheduler tick)
- 109'next corner → P2 (after 693.8s)
97'CNext throw-in: home/awayP2resolved
- 97'OPEN (scheduler tick)
- 101'next throw_in → P2 (after 216.7s)
100'AGoal in next 5 minYESresolved
- 100'window OPEN
- 102'goal (confirmed) inside window → YES
100'ACorner in next 5 minNOresolved
- 100'window OPEN
- 105'window closed, no event → NO
100'AShot in next 5 minYESresolved
- 100'window OPEN
- 101'shot (confirmed) inside window → YES
100'EHome possession O/U 50% (5min)OVER (53%)resolved⚠
self-integrated from the Possession stream — basis (time-in-control vs danger heuristic) & final-vs-interim UNCONFIRMED by TxOdds.
- 100'window OPEN
- 105'integrated home 53% → OVER
105'AGoal in next 5 minNOresolved
- 105'window OPEN
- 110'window closed, no event → NO
105'ACorner in next 5 minYESresolved
- 105'window OPEN
- 109'corner (confirmed) inside window → YES
105'AShot in next 5 minYESresolved
- 105'window OPEN
- 106'shot (confirmed) inside window → YES
105'DTotal corners 15-min seg (O/U 4)push
void: segment straddles a period boundary → push/prorate
- 105'segment OPEN
- 120'straddles boundary → PUSH
105'EHome possession O/U 50% (5min)UNDER (36%)resolved⚠
self-integrated from the Possession stream — basis (time-in-control vs danger heuristic) & final-vs-interim UNCONFIRMED by TxOdds.
- 105'window OPEN
- 110'integrated home 36% → UNDER
109'BCorner outcomecleared_no_shotresolved
- 109'corner_awarded → OPEN
- 109'LOCK +8.0s (no corner_taken marker)
- 109'phase window closes (+30.0s) → cleared_no_shot
110'AGoal in next 5 minNOresolved
- 110'window OPEN
- 115'window closed, no event → NO
110'ACorner in next 5 minYESresolved
- 110'window OPEN
- 111'corner (confirmed) inside window → YES
110'AShot in next 5 minNOresolved
- 110'window OPEN
- 115'window closed, no event → NO
110'EHome possession O/U 50% (5min)UNDER (21%)resolved⚠
self-integrated from the Possession stream — basis (time-in-control vs danger heuristic) & final-vs-interim UNCONFIRMED by TxOdds.
- 110'window OPEN
- 115'integrated home 21% → UNDER
115'AGoal in next 5 minvoided
void: window straddles a period boundary (HT/FT)
- 115'window OPEN
115'ACorner in next 5 minvoided
void: window straddles a period boundary (HT/FT)
- 115'window OPEN
115'AShot in next 5 minvoided
void: window straddles a period boundary (HT/FT)
- 115'window OPEN
115'EHome possession O/U 50% (5min)voided
void: segment straddles a period boundary
- 115'window OPEN
- 120'straddles boundary → VOID
Workarounds applied (no real data exists): set-piece Lock = fixed 8s window after the award (no *_taken marker); corner-outcome phase = 30s window (no set-piece id); possession = self-integrated from the Possession stream (basis unconfirmed). The ⚠ flags are exactly where these guesses could mis-settle on real data.
