Settlement simulation
Slovakia vs Malta (2–1) · fixture #17966941 replayed through the PulsePlay A–E market state machines · 124 market instances · 22 gap-bites (settlement-integrity risks from the missing-data workarounds).
Per-archetype outcomes
A · Rolling window
69 instances
63 resolved
6 voided
B · Set-piece outcome
12 instances
12 resolved
⚠ 1 gap-bites
C · Next-event
12 instances
12 resolved
D · Segment O/U
8 instances
6 resolved
2 push
E · Possession
23 instances
21 resolved
2 voided
⚠ 21 gap-bites
Market instances
124 shown0'AGoal in next 5 minNOresolved
- 0'window OPEN
- 5'window closed, no event → NO
0'ACorner in next 5 minYESresolved
- 0'window OPEN
- 2'corner (confirmed) inside window → YES
0'AShot in next 5 minYESresolved
- 0'window OPEN
- 2'shot (confirmed) inside window → YES
0'DTotal corners 15-min seg (O/U 4)UNDER (1)resolved
- 0'segment OPEN
- 15'counted 1 corner → UNDER
0'CNext corner: home/awayP1resolved
- 0'OPEN (scheduler tick)
- 2'next corner → P1 (after 135.6s)
0'CNext throw-in: home/awayP2resolved
- 0'OPEN (scheduler tick)
- 3'next throw_in → P2 (after 195.5s)
0'EHome possession O/U 50% (5min)OVER (73%)resolved⚠
self-integrated from the Possession stream — basis (time-in-control vs danger heuristic) & final-vs-interim UNCONFIRMED by TxOdds.
- 0'window OPEN
- 5'integrated home 73% → OVER
2'BCorner outcomeshot_no_goalresolved
- 2'corner_awarded → OPEN
- 2'LOCK +8.0s (no corner_taken marker)
- 3'phase window closes (+30.0s) → shot_no_goal
5'AGoal in next 5 minYESresolved
- 5'window OPEN
- 9'goal (confirmed) inside window → YES
5'ACorner in next 5 minNOresolved
- 5'window OPEN
- 10'window closed, no event → NO
5'AShot in next 5 minYESresolved
- 5'window OPEN
- 6'shot (confirmed) inside window → YES
5'EHome possession O/U 50% (5min)OVER (62%)resolved⚠
self-integrated from the Possession stream — basis (time-in-control vs danger heuristic) & final-vs-interim UNCONFIRMED by TxOdds.
- 5'window OPEN
- 10'integrated home 62% → OVER
10'AGoal in next 5 minNOresolved
- 10'window OPEN
- 15'window closed, no event → NO
10'ACorner in next 5 minNOresolved
- 10'window OPEN
- 15'window closed, no event → NO
10'AShot in next 5 minYESresolved
- 10'window OPEN
- 14'shot (confirmed) inside window → YES
10'EHome possession O/U 50% (5min)UNDER (44%)resolved⚠
self-integrated from the Possession stream — basis (time-in-control vs danger heuristic) & final-vs-interim UNCONFIRMED by TxOdds.
- 10'window OPEN
- 15'integrated home 44% → UNDER
15'AGoal in next 5 minNOresolved
- 15'window OPEN
- 20'window closed, no event → NO
15'ACorner in next 5 minYESresolved
- 15'window OPEN
- 18'corner (confirmed) inside window → YES
15'AShot in next 5 minYESresolved
- 15'window OPEN
- 18'shot (confirmed) inside window → YES
15'DTotal corners 15-min seg (O/U 4)UNDER (2)resolved
- 15'segment OPEN
- 30'counted 2 corner → UNDER
15'EHome possession O/U 50% (5min)UNDER (25%)resolved⚠
self-integrated from the Possession stream — basis (time-in-control vs danger heuristic) & final-vs-interim UNCONFIRMED by TxOdds.
- 15'window OPEN
- 20'integrated home 25% → UNDER
18'BCorner outcomeshot_no_goalresolved
- 18'corner_awarded → OPEN
- 18'LOCK +8.0s (no corner_taken marker)
- 19'phase window closes (+30.0s) → shot_no_goal
19'CNext corner: home/awayP2resolved
- 19'OPEN (scheduler tick)
- 25'next corner → P2 (after 370.2s)
19'CNext throw-in: home/awayP1resolved
- 19'OPEN (scheduler tick)
- 21'next throw_in → P1 (after 94.3s)
20'AGoal in next 5 minNOresolved
- 20'window OPEN
- 25'window closed, no event → NO
20'ACorner in next 5 minNOresolved
- 20'window OPEN
- 25'window closed, no event → NO
20'AShot in next 5 minYESresolved
- 20'window OPEN
- 21'shot (confirmed) inside window → YES
20'EHome possession O/U 50% (5min)OVER (59%)resolved⚠
self-integrated from the Possession stream — basis (time-in-control vs danger heuristic) & final-vs-interim UNCONFIRMED by TxOdds.
- 20'window OPEN
- 25'integrated home 59% → OVER
25'AGoal in next 5 minNOresolved
- 25'window OPEN
- 30'window closed, no event → NO
25'ACorner in next 5 minYESresolved
- 25'window OPEN
- 25'corner (confirmed) inside window → YES
25'AShot in next 5 minYESresolved
- 25'window OPEN
- 29'shot (confirmed) inside window → YES
25'EHome possession O/U 50% (5min)UNDER (41%)resolved⚠
self-integrated from the Possession stream — basis (time-in-control vs danger heuristic) & final-vs-interim UNCONFIRMED by TxOdds.
- 25'window OPEN
- 30'integrated home 41% → UNDER
25'BCorner outcomecleared_no_shotresolved
- 25'corner_awarded → OPEN
- 25'LOCK +8.0s (no corner_taken marker)
- 26'phase window closes (+30.0s) → cleared_no_shot
30'AGoal in next 5 minNOresolved
- 30'window OPEN
- 35'window closed, no event → NO
30'ACorner in next 5 minYESresolved
- 30'window OPEN
- 31'corner (confirmed) inside window → YES
30'AShot in next 5 minYESresolved
- 30'window OPEN
- 31'shot (confirmed) inside window → YES
30'DTotal corners 15-min seg (O/U 4)UNDER (3)resolved
- 30'segment OPEN
- 45'counted 3 corner → UNDER
30'EHome possession O/U 50% (5min)OVER (71%)resolved⚠
self-integrated from the Possession stream — basis (time-in-control vs danger heuristic) & final-vs-interim UNCONFIRMED by TxOdds.
- 30'window OPEN
- 35'integrated home 71% → OVER
31'BCorner outcomeshot_no_goalresolved
- 31'corner_awarded → OPEN
- 31'LOCK +8.0s (no corner_taken marker)
- 32'phase window closes (+30.0s) → shot_no_goal
35'AGoal in next 5 minYESresolved
- 35'window OPEN
- 37'goal (confirmed) inside window → YES
35'ACorner in next 5 minYESresolved
- 35'window OPEN
- 39'corner (confirmed) inside window → YES
35'AShot in next 5 minYESresolved
- 35'window OPEN
- 39'shot (confirmed) inside window → YES
35'EHome possession O/U 50% (5min)UNDER (33%)resolved⚠
self-integrated from the Possession stream — basis (time-in-control vs danger heuristic) & final-vs-interim UNCONFIRMED by TxOdds.
- 35'window OPEN
- 40'integrated home 33% → UNDER
38'CNext corner: home/awayP2resolved
- 38'OPEN (scheduler tick)
- 39'next corner → P2 (after 69.1s)
38'CNext throw-in: home/awayP1resolved
- 38'OPEN (scheduler tick)
- 42'next throw_in → P1 (after 263.0s)
39'BCorner outcomeshot_no_goalresolved⚠
⚠ a shot landed 5.2s AFTER the 30.0s phase window — no set-piece id means it can't be excluded with certainty; window length is a guess.
- 39'corner_awarded → OPEN
- 39'LOCK +8.0s (no corner_taken marker)
- 40'phase window closes (+30.0s) → shot_no_goal
40'AGoal in next 5 minNOresolved
- 40'window OPEN
- 45'window closed, no event → NO
40'ACorner in next 5 minYESresolved
- 40'window OPEN
- 41'corner (confirmed) inside window → YES
40'AShot in next 5 minYESresolved
- 40'window OPEN
- 41'shot (confirmed) inside window → YES
40'EHome possession O/U 50% (5min)OVER (64%)resolved⚠
self-integrated from the Possession stream — basis (time-in-control vs danger heuristic) & final-vs-interim UNCONFIRMED by TxOdds.
- 40'window OPEN
- 45'integrated home 64% → OVER
41'BCorner outcomeshot_no_goalresolved
- 41'corner_awarded → OPEN
- 41'LOCK +8.0s (no corner_taken marker)
- 41'phase window closes (+30.0s) → shot_no_goal
45'AGoal in next 5 minvoided
void: window straddles a period boundary (HT/FT)
- 45'window OPEN
45'ACorner in next 5 minvoided
void: window straddles a period boundary (HT/FT)
- 45'window OPEN
45'AShot in next 5 minvoided
void: window straddles a period boundary (HT/FT)
- 45'window OPEN
45'DTotal corners 15-min seg (O/U 4)push
void: segment straddles a period boundary → push/prorate
- 45'segment OPEN
- 60'straddles boundary → PUSH
45'EHome possession O/U 50% (5min)voided
void: segment straddles a period boundary
- 45'window OPEN
- 50'straddles boundary → VOID
50'AGoal in next 5 minNOresolved
- 50'window OPEN
- 55'window closed, no event → NO
50'ACorner in next 5 minNOresolved
- 50'window OPEN
- 55'window closed, no event → NO
50'AShot in next 5 minNOresolved
- 50'window OPEN
- 55'window closed, no event → NO
50'EHome possession O/U 50% (5min)UNDER (0%)resolved⚠
self-integrated from the Possession stream — basis (time-in-control vs danger heuristic) & final-vs-interim UNCONFIRMED by TxOdds.
- 50'window OPEN
- 55'integrated home 0% → UNDER
55'AGoal in next 5 minNOresolved
- 55'window OPEN
- 60'window closed, no event → NO
55'ACorner in next 5 minNOresolved
- 55'window OPEN
- 60'window closed, no event → NO
55'AShot in next 5 minNOresolved
- 55'window OPEN
- 60'window closed, no event → NO
55'EHome possession O/U 50% (5min)UNDER (0%)resolved⚠
self-integrated from the Possession stream — basis (time-in-control vs danger heuristic) & final-vs-interim UNCONFIRMED by TxOdds.
- 55'window OPEN
- 60'integrated home 0% → UNDER
57'CNext corner: home/awayP1resolved
- 57'OPEN (scheduler tick)
- 69'next corner → P1 (after 710.0s)
57'CNext throw-in: home/awayP1resolved
- 57'OPEN (scheduler tick)
- 65'next throw_in → P1 (after 477.4s)
60'AGoal in next 5 minNOresolved
- 60'window OPEN
- 65'window closed, no event → NO
60'ACorner in next 5 minNOresolved
- 60'window OPEN
- 65'window closed, no event → NO
60'AShot in next 5 minNOresolved
- 60'window OPEN
- 65'window closed, no event → NO
60'DTotal corners 15-min seg (O/U 4)UNDER (1)resolved
- 60'segment OPEN
- 75'counted 1 corner → UNDER
60'EHome possession O/U 50% (5min)UNDER (44%)resolved⚠
self-integrated from the Possession stream — basis (time-in-control vs danger heuristic) & final-vs-interim UNCONFIRMED by TxOdds.
- 60'window OPEN
- 65'integrated home 44% → UNDER
65'AGoal in next 5 minNOresolved
- 65'window OPEN
- 70'window closed, no event → NO
65'ACorner in next 5 minYESresolved
- 65'window OPEN
- 69'corner (confirmed) inside window → YES
65'AShot in next 5 minYESresolved
- 65'window OPEN
- 69'shot (confirmed) inside window → YES
65'EHome possession O/U 50% (5min)OVER (81%)resolved⚠
self-integrated from the Possession stream — basis (time-in-control vs danger heuristic) & final-vs-interim UNCONFIRMED by TxOdds.
- 65'window OPEN
- 70'integrated home 81% → OVER
69'BCorner outcomeshot_no_goalresolved
- 69'corner_awarded → OPEN
- 69'LOCK +8.0s (no corner_taken marker)
- 69'phase window closes (+30.0s) → shot_no_goal
70'AGoal in next 5 minNOresolved
- 70'window OPEN
- 75'window closed, no event → NO
70'ACorner in next 5 minNOresolved
- 70'window OPEN
- 75'window closed, no event → NO
70'AShot in next 5 minYESresolved
- 70'window OPEN
- 71'shot (confirmed) inside window → YES
70'EHome possession O/U 50% (5min)OVER (62%)resolved⚠
self-integrated from the Possession stream — basis (time-in-control vs danger heuristic) & final-vs-interim UNCONFIRMED by TxOdds.
- 70'window OPEN
- 75'integrated home 62% → OVER
75'AGoal in next 5 minNOresolved
- 75'window OPEN
- 80'window closed, no event → NO
75'ACorner in next 5 minNOresolved
- 75'window OPEN
- 80'window closed, no event → NO
75'AShot in next 5 minYESresolved
- 75'window OPEN
- 79'shot (confirmed) inside window → YES
75'DTotal corners 15-min seg (O/U 4)OVER (5)resolved
- 75'segment OPEN
- 90'counted 5 corner → OVER
75'EHome possession O/U 50% (5min)UNDER (31%)resolved⚠
self-integrated from the Possession stream — basis (time-in-control vs danger heuristic) & final-vs-interim UNCONFIRMED by TxOdds.
- 75'window OPEN
- 80'integrated home 31% → UNDER
76'CNext corner: home/awayP1resolved
- 76'OPEN (scheduler tick)
- 81'next corner → P1 (after 315.7s)
76'CNext throw-in: home/awayP1resolved
- 76'OPEN (scheduler tick)
- 78'next throw_in → P1 (after 102.6s)
80'AGoal in next 5 minNOresolved
- 80'window OPEN
- 85'window closed, no event → NO
80'ACorner in next 5 minYESresolved
- 80'window OPEN
- 81'corner (confirmed) inside window → YES
80'AShot in next 5 minYESresolved
- 80'window OPEN
- 81'shot (confirmed) inside window → YES
80'EHome possession O/U 50% (5min)OVER (67%)resolved⚠
self-integrated from the Possession stream — basis (time-in-control vs danger heuristic) & final-vs-interim UNCONFIRMED by TxOdds.
- 80'window OPEN
- 85'integrated home 67% → OVER
81'BCorner outcomeshot_no_goalresolved
- 81'corner_awarded → OPEN
- 81'LOCK +8.0s (no corner_taken marker)
- 82'phase window closes (+30.0s) → shot_no_goal
82'BCorner outcomeshot_no_goalresolved
- 82'corner_awarded → OPEN
- 82'LOCK +8.0s (no corner_taken marker)
- 82'phase window closes (+30.0s) → shot_no_goal
84'BCorner outcomeanother_corner_wonresolved
- 84'corner_awarded → OPEN
- 84'LOCK +8.0s (no corner_taken marker)
- 85'phase window closes (+30.0s) → another_corner_won
85'BCorner outcomecleared_no_shotresolved
- 85'corner_awarded → OPEN
- 85'LOCK +8.0s (no corner_taken marker)
- 85'phase window closes (+30.0s) → cleared_no_shot
85'AGoal in next 5 minNOresolved
- 85'window OPEN
- 90'window closed, no event → NO
85'ACorner in next 5 minYESresolved
- 85'window OPEN
- 89'corner (confirmed) inside window → YES
85'AShot in next 5 minYESresolved
- 85'window OPEN
- 88'shot (confirmed) inside window → YES
85'EHome possession O/U 50% (5min)OVER (82%)resolved⚠
self-integrated from the Possession stream — basis (time-in-control vs danger heuristic) & final-vs-interim UNCONFIRMED by TxOdds.
- 85'window OPEN
- 90'integrated home 82% → OVER
89'BCorner outcomecleared_no_shotresolved
- 89'corner_awarded → OPEN
- 89'LOCK +8.0s (no corner_taken marker)
- 90'phase window closes (+30.0s) → cleared_no_shot
90'AGoal in next 5 minNOresolved
- 90'window OPEN
- 95'window closed, no event → NO
90'ACorner in next 5 minYESresolved
- 90'window OPEN
- 94'corner (confirmed) inside window → YES
90'AShot in next 5 minYESresolved
- 90'window OPEN
- 92'shot (confirmed) inside window → YES
90'DTotal corners 15-min seg (O/U 4)UNDER (2)resolved
- 90'segment OPEN
- 105'counted 2 corner → UNDER
90'EHome possession O/U 50% (5min)OVER (75%)resolved⚠
self-integrated from the Possession stream — basis (time-in-control vs danger heuristic) & final-vs-interim UNCONFIRMED by TxOdds.
- 90'window OPEN
- 95'integrated home 75% → OVER
95'CNext corner: home/awayP1resolved
- 95'OPEN (scheduler tick)
- 102'next corner → P1 (after 425.7s)
95'CNext throw-in: home/awayP2resolved
- 95'OPEN (scheduler tick)
- 112'next throw_in → P2 (after 1050.9s)
95'AGoal in next 5 minNOresolved
- 95'window OPEN
- 100'window closed, no event → NO
95'ACorner in next 5 minNOresolved
- 95'window OPEN
- 100'window closed, no event → NO
95'AShot in next 5 minYESresolved
- 95'window OPEN
- 97'shot (confirmed) inside window → YES
95'EHome possession O/U 50% (5min)UNDER (40%)resolved⚠
self-integrated from the Possession stream — basis (time-in-control vs danger heuristic) & final-vs-interim UNCONFIRMED by TxOdds.
- 95'window OPEN
- 100'integrated home 40% → UNDER
100'AGoal in next 5 minNOresolved
- 100'window OPEN
- 105'window closed, no event → NO
100'ACorner in next 5 minYESresolved
- 100'window OPEN
- 102'corner (confirmed) inside window → YES
100'AShot in next 5 minYESresolved
- 100'window OPEN
- 103'shot (confirmed) inside window → YES
100'EHome possession O/U 50% (5min)UNDER (42%)resolved⚠
self-integrated from the Possession stream — basis (time-in-control vs danger heuristic) & final-vs-interim UNCONFIRMED by TxOdds.
- 100'window OPEN
- 105'integrated home 42% → UNDER
105'AGoal in next 5 minNOresolved
- 105'window OPEN
- 110'window closed, no event → NO
105'ACorner in next 5 minYESresolved
- 105'window OPEN
- 107'corner (confirmed) inside window → YES
105'AShot in next 5 minYESresolved
- 105'window OPEN
- 105'shot (confirmed) inside window → YES
105'DTotal corners 15-min seg (O/U 4)push
void: segment straddles a period boundary → push/prorate
- 105'segment OPEN
- 120'straddles boundary → PUSH
105'EHome possession O/U 50% (5min)OVER (64%)resolved⚠
self-integrated from the Possession stream — basis (time-in-control vs danger heuristic) & final-vs-interim UNCONFIRMED by TxOdds.
- 105'window OPEN
- 110'integrated home 64% → OVER
110'AGoal in next 5 minvoided
void: window straddles a period boundary (HT/FT)
- 110'window OPEN
110'ACorner in next 5 minvoided
void: window straddles a period boundary (HT/FT)
- 110'window OPEN
110'AShot in next 5 minvoided
void: window straddles a period boundary (HT/FT)
- 110'window OPEN
110'EHome possession O/U 50% (5min)voided
void: segment straddles a period boundary
- 110'window OPEN
- 115'straddles boundary → VOID
Workarounds applied (no real data exists): set-piece Lock = fixed 8s window after the award (no *_taken marker); corner-outcome phase = 30s window (no set-piece id); possession = self-integrated from the Possession stream (basis unconfirmed). The ⚠ flags are exactly where these guesses could mis-settle on real data.
