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Settlement simulation

Bulgaria vs Montenegro (0–1) · fixture #17967054 replayed through the PulsePlay A–E market state machines · 115 market instances · 21 gap-bites (settlement-integrity risks from the missing-data workarounds).

Per-archetype outcomes

A · Rolling window
69 instances
63 resolved
6 voided
B · Set-piece outcome
3 instances
3 resolved
C · Next-event
12 instances
12 resolved
D · Segment O/U
8 instances
6 resolved
2 push
E · Possession
23 instances
21 resolved
2 voided
⚠ 21 gap-bites

Market instances

115 shown
0'AGoal in next 5 minNOresolved
  1. 0'window OPEN
  2. 5'window closed, no event → NO
0'ACorner in next 5 minYESresolved
  1. 0'window OPEN
  2. 3'corner (confirmed) inside window → YES
0'AShot in next 5 minYESresolved
  1. 0'window OPEN
  2. 1'shot (confirmed) inside window → YES
0'DTotal corners 15-min seg (O/U 4)UNDER (1)resolved
  1. 0'segment OPEN
  2. 15'counted 1 corner → UNDER
0'CNext corner: home/awayP2resolved
  1. 0'OPEN (scheduler tick)
  2. 3'next corner → P2 (after 198.6s)
0'CNext throw-in: home/awayP1resolved
  1. 0'OPEN (scheduler tick)
  2. 1'next throw_in → P1 (after 37.6s)
0'EHome possession O/U 50% (5min)UNDER (33%)resolved⚠
self-integrated from the Possession stream — basis (time-in-control vs danger heuristic) & final-vs-interim UNCONFIRMED by TxOdds.
  1. 0'window OPEN
  2. 5'integrated home 33% → UNDER
3'BCorner outcomeshot_no_goalresolved
  1. 3'corner_awarded → OPEN
  2. 3'LOCK +8.0s (no corner_taken marker)
  3. 4'phase window closes (+30.0s) → shot_no_goal
5'AGoal in next 5 minNOresolved
  1. 5'window OPEN
  2. 10'window closed, no event → NO
5'ACorner in next 5 minNOresolved
  1. 5'window OPEN
  2. 10'window closed, no event → NO
5'AShot in next 5 minYESresolved
  1. 5'window OPEN
  2. 7'shot (confirmed) inside window → YES
5'EHome possession O/U 50% (5min)UNDER (39%)resolved⚠
self-integrated from the Possession stream — basis (time-in-control vs danger heuristic) & final-vs-interim UNCONFIRMED by TxOdds.
  1. 5'window OPEN
  2. 10'integrated home 39% → UNDER
10'AGoal in next 5 minNOresolved
  1. 10'window OPEN
  2. 15'window closed, no event → NO
10'ACorner in next 5 minNOresolved
  1. 10'window OPEN
  2. 15'window closed, no event → NO
10'AShot in next 5 minYESresolved
  1. 10'window OPEN
  2. 15'shot (confirmed) inside window → YES
10'EHome possession O/U 50% (5min)OVER (91%)resolved⚠
self-integrated from the Possession stream — basis (time-in-control vs danger heuristic) & final-vs-interim UNCONFIRMED by TxOdds.
  1. 10'window OPEN
  2. 15'integrated home 91% → OVER
15'AGoal in next 5 minNOresolved
  1. 15'window OPEN
  2. 20'window closed, no event → NO
15'ACorner in next 5 minNOresolved
  1. 15'window OPEN
  2. 20'window closed, no event → NO
15'AShot in next 5 minYESresolved
  1. 15'window OPEN
  2. 18'shot (confirmed) inside window → YES
15'DTotal corners 15-min seg (O/U 4)UNDER (0)resolved
  1. 15'segment OPEN
  2. 30'counted 0 corner → UNDER
15'EHome possession O/U 50% (5min)OVER (61%)resolved⚠
self-integrated from the Possession stream — basis (time-in-control vs danger heuristic) & final-vs-interim UNCONFIRMED by TxOdds.
  1. 15'window OPEN
  2. 20'integrated home 61% → OVER
19'CNext corner: home/awayP2resolved
  1. 19'OPEN (scheduler tick)
  2. 82'next corner → P2 (after 3805.2s)
19'CNext throw-in: home/awayP1resolved
  1. 19'OPEN (scheduler tick)
  2. 19'next throw_in → P1 (after 2.9s)
20'AGoal in next 5 minNOresolved
  1. 20'window OPEN
  2. 25'window closed, no event → NO
20'ACorner in next 5 minNOresolved
  1. 20'window OPEN
  2. 25'window closed, no event → NO
20'AShot in next 5 minNOresolved
  1. 20'window OPEN
  2. 25'window closed, no event → NO
20'EHome possession O/U 50% (5min)OVER (87%)resolved⚠
self-integrated from the Possession stream — basis (time-in-control vs danger heuristic) & final-vs-interim UNCONFIRMED by TxOdds.
  1. 20'window OPEN
  2. 25'integrated home 87% → OVER
25'AGoal in next 5 minNOresolved
  1. 25'window OPEN
  2. 30'window closed, no event → NO
25'ACorner in next 5 minNOresolved
  1. 25'window OPEN
  2. 30'window closed, no event → NO
25'AShot in next 5 minYESresolved
  1. 25'window OPEN
  2. 25'shot (confirmed) inside window → YES
25'EHome possession O/U 50% (5min)UNDER (49%)resolved⚠
self-integrated from the Possession stream — basis (time-in-control vs danger heuristic) & final-vs-interim UNCONFIRMED by TxOdds.
  1. 25'window OPEN
  2. 30'integrated home 49% → UNDER
30'AGoal in next 5 minNOresolved
  1. 30'window OPEN
  2. 35'window closed, no event → NO
30'ACorner in next 5 minNOresolved
  1. 30'window OPEN
  2. 35'window closed, no event → NO
30'AShot in next 5 minYESresolved
  1. 30'window OPEN
  2. 33'shot (confirmed) inside window → YES
30'DTotal corners 15-min seg (O/U 4)UNDER (0)resolved
  1. 30'segment OPEN
  2. 45'counted 0 corner → UNDER
30'EHome possession O/U 50% (5min)UNDER (46%)resolved⚠
self-integrated from the Possession stream — basis (time-in-control vs danger heuristic) & final-vs-interim UNCONFIRMED by TxOdds.
  1. 30'window OPEN
  2. 35'integrated home 46% → UNDER
35'AGoal in next 5 minNOresolved
  1. 35'window OPEN
  2. 40'window closed, no event → NO
35'ACorner in next 5 minNOresolved
  1. 35'window OPEN
  2. 40'window closed, no event → NO
35'AShot in next 5 minYESresolved
  1. 35'window OPEN
  2. 37'shot (confirmed) inside window → YES
35'EHome possession O/U 50% (5min)UNDER (35%)resolved⚠
self-integrated from the Possession stream — basis (time-in-control vs danger heuristic) & final-vs-interim UNCONFIRMED by TxOdds.
  1. 35'window OPEN
  2. 40'integrated home 35% → UNDER
38'CNext corner: home/awayP2resolved
  1. 38'OPEN (scheduler tick)
  2. 82'next corner → P2 (after 2666.6s)
38'CNext throw-in: home/awayP1resolved
  1. 38'OPEN (scheduler tick)
  2. 40'next throw_in → P1 (after 112.7s)
40'AGoal in next 5 minNOresolved
  1. 40'window OPEN
  2. 45'window closed, no event → NO
40'ACorner in next 5 minNOresolved
  1. 40'window OPEN
  2. 45'window closed, no event → NO
40'AShot in next 5 minNOresolved
  1. 40'window OPEN
  2. 45'window closed, no event → NO
40'EHome possession O/U 50% (5min)OVER (67%)resolved⚠
self-integrated from the Possession stream — basis (time-in-control vs danger heuristic) & final-vs-interim UNCONFIRMED by TxOdds.
  1. 40'window OPEN
  2. 45'integrated home 67% → OVER
45'AGoal in next 5 minvoided
void: window straddles a period boundary (HT/FT)
  1. 45'window OPEN
45'ACorner in next 5 minvoided
void: window straddles a period boundary (HT/FT)
  1. 45'window OPEN
45'AShot in next 5 minvoided
void: window straddles a period boundary (HT/FT)
  1. 45'window OPEN
45'DTotal corners 15-min seg (O/U 4)push
void: segment straddles a period boundary → push/prorate
  1. 45'segment OPEN
  2. 60'straddles boundary → PUSH
45'EHome possession O/U 50% (5min)voided
void: segment straddles a period boundary
  1. 45'window OPEN
  2. 50'straddles boundary → VOID
50'AGoal in next 5 minNOresolved
  1. 50'window OPEN
  2. 55'window closed, no event → NO
50'ACorner in next 5 minNOresolved
  1. 50'window OPEN
  2. 55'window closed, no event → NO
50'AShot in next 5 minNOresolved
  1. 50'window OPEN
  2. 55'window closed, no event → NO
50'EHome possession O/U 50% (5min)UNDER (0%)resolved⚠
self-integrated from the Possession stream — basis (time-in-control vs danger heuristic) & final-vs-interim UNCONFIRMED by TxOdds.
  1. 50'window OPEN
  2. 55'integrated home 0% → UNDER
55'AGoal in next 5 minNOresolved
  1. 55'window OPEN
  2. 60'window closed, no event → NO
55'ACorner in next 5 minNOresolved
  1. 55'window OPEN
  2. 60'window closed, no event → NO
55'AShot in next 5 minNOresolved
  1. 55'window OPEN
  2. 60'window closed, no event → NO
55'EHome possession O/U 50% (5min)UNDER (0%)resolved⚠
self-integrated from the Possession stream — basis (time-in-control vs danger heuristic) & final-vs-interim UNCONFIRMED by TxOdds.
  1. 55'window OPEN
  2. 60'integrated home 0% → UNDER
57'CNext corner: home/awayP2resolved
  1. 57'OPEN (scheduler tick)
  2. 82'next corner → P2 (after 1528.0s)
57'CNext throw-in: home/awayP2resolved
  1. 57'OPEN (scheduler tick)
  2. 63'next throw_in → P2 (after 351.5s)
60'AGoal in next 5 minNOresolved
  1. 60'window OPEN
  2. 65'window closed, no event → NO
60'ACorner in next 5 minNOresolved
  1. 60'window OPEN
  2. 65'window closed, no event → NO
60'AShot in next 5 minYESresolved
  1. 60'window OPEN
  2. 63'shot (confirmed) inside window → YES
60'DTotal corners 15-min seg (O/U 4)UNDER (0)resolved
  1. 60'segment OPEN
  2. 75'counted 0 corner → UNDER
60'EHome possession O/U 50% (5min)UNDER (13%)resolved⚠
self-integrated from the Possession stream — basis (time-in-control vs danger heuristic) & final-vs-interim UNCONFIRMED by TxOdds.
  1. 60'window OPEN
  2. 65'integrated home 13% → UNDER
65'AGoal in next 5 minNOresolved
  1. 65'window OPEN
  2. 70'window closed, no event → NO
65'ACorner in next 5 minNOresolved
  1. 65'window OPEN
  2. 70'window closed, no event → NO
65'AShot in next 5 minYESresolved
  1. 65'window OPEN
  2. 69'shot (confirmed) inside window → YES
65'EHome possession O/U 50% (5min)OVER (72%)resolved⚠
self-integrated from the Possession stream — basis (time-in-control vs danger heuristic) & final-vs-interim UNCONFIRMED by TxOdds.
  1. 65'window OPEN
  2. 70'integrated home 72% → OVER
70'AGoal in next 5 minNOresolved
  1. 70'window OPEN
  2. 75'window closed, no event → NO
70'ACorner in next 5 minNOresolved
  1. 70'window OPEN
  2. 75'window closed, no event → NO
70'AShot in next 5 minYESresolved
  1. 70'window OPEN
  2. 75'shot (confirmed) inside window → YES
70'EHome possession O/U 50% (5min)UNDER (38%)resolved⚠
self-integrated from the Possession stream — basis (time-in-control vs danger heuristic) & final-vs-interim UNCONFIRMED by TxOdds.
  1. 70'window OPEN
  2. 75'integrated home 38% → UNDER
75'AGoal in next 5 minNOresolved
  1. 75'window OPEN
  2. 80'window closed, no event → NO
75'ACorner in next 5 minNOresolved
  1. 75'window OPEN
  2. 80'window closed, no event → NO
75'AShot in next 5 minNOresolved
  1. 75'window OPEN
  2. 80'window closed, no event → NO
75'DTotal corners 15-min seg (O/U 4)UNDER (1)resolved
  1. 75'segment OPEN
  2. 90'counted 1 corner → UNDER
75'EHome possession O/U 50% (5min)UNDER (33%)resolved⚠
self-integrated from the Possession stream — basis (time-in-control vs danger heuristic) & final-vs-interim UNCONFIRMED by TxOdds.
  1. 75'window OPEN
  2. 80'integrated home 33% → UNDER
76'CNext corner: home/awayP2resolved
  1. 76'OPEN (scheduler tick)
  2. 82'next corner → P2 (after 389.4s)
76'CNext throw-in: home/awayP2resolved
  1. 76'OPEN (scheduler tick)
  2. 76'next throw_in → P2 (after 20.1s)
80'AGoal in next 5 minNOresolved
  1. 80'window OPEN
  2. 85'window closed, no event → NO
80'ACorner in next 5 minYESresolved
  1. 80'window OPEN
  2. 82'corner (confirmed) inside window → YES
80'AShot in next 5 minYESresolved
  1. 80'window OPEN
  2. 82'shot (confirmed) inside window → YES
80'EHome possession O/U 50% (5min)UNDER (35%)resolved⚠
self-integrated from the Possession stream — basis (time-in-control vs danger heuristic) & final-vs-interim UNCONFIRMED by TxOdds.
  1. 80'window OPEN
  2. 85'integrated home 35% → UNDER
82'BCorner outcomecleared_no_shotresolved
  1. 82'corner_awarded → OPEN
  2. 83'LOCK +8.0s (no corner_taken marker)
  3. 83'phase window closes (+30.0s) → cleared_no_shot
85'AGoal in next 5 minYESresolved
  1. 85'window OPEN
  2. 86'goal (confirmed) inside window → YES
85'ACorner in next 5 minNOresolved
  1. 85'window OPEN
  2. 90'window closed, no event → NO
85'AShot in next 5 minYESresolved
  1. 85'window OPEN
  2. 86'shot (confirmed) inside window → YES
85'EHome possession O/U 50% (5min)UNDER (41%)resolved⚠
self-integrated from the Possession stream — basis (time-in-control vs danger heuristic) & final-vs-interim UNCONFIRMED by TxOdds.
  1. 85'window OPEN
  2. 90'integrated home 41% → UNDER
90'AGoal in next 5 minNOresolved
  1. 90'window OPEN
  2. 95'window closed, no event → NO
90'ACorner in next 5 minNOresolved
  1. 90'window OPEN
  2. 95'window closed, no event → NO
90'AShot in next 5 minYESresolved
  1. 90'window OPEN
  2. 92'shot (confirmed) inside window → YES
90'DTotal corners 15-min seg (O/U 4)UNDER (0)resolved
  1. 90'segment OPEN
  2. 105'counted 0 corner → UNDER
90'EHome possession O/U 50% (5min)OVER (60%)resolved⚠
self-integrated from the Possession stream — basis (time-in-control vs danger heuristic) & final-vs-interim UNCONFIRMED by TxOdds.
  1. 90'window OPEN
  2. 95'integrated home 60% → OVER
95'CNext corner: home/awayP1resolved
  1. 95'OPEN (scheduler tick)
  2. 112'next corner → P1 (after 1014.1s)
95'CNext throw-in: home/awayP2resolved
  1. 95'OPEN (scheduler tick)
  2. 97'next throw_in → P2 (after 134.1s)
95'AGoal in next 5 minNOresolved
  1. 95'window OPEN
  2. 100'window closed, no event → NO
95'ACorner in next 5 minNOresolved
  1. 95'window OPEN
  2. 100'window closed, no event → NO
95'AShot in next 5 minNOresolved
  1. 95'window OPEN
  2. 100'window closed, no event → NO
95'EHome possession O/U 50% (5min)OVER (82%)resolved⚠
self-integrated from the Possession stream — basis (time-in-control vs danger heuristic) & final-vs-interim UNCONFIRMED by TxOdds.
  1. 95'window OPEN
  2. 100'integrated home 82% → OVER
100'AGoal in next 5 minNOresolved
  1. 100'window OPEN
  2. 105'window closed, no event → NO
100'ACorner in next 5 minNOresolved
  1. 100'window OPEN
  2. 105'window closed, no event → NO
100'AShot in next 5 minNOresolved
  1. 100'window OPEN
  2. 105'window closed, no event → NO
100'EHome possession O/U 50% (5min)OVER (56%)resolved⚠
self-integrated from the Possession stream — basis (time-in-control vs danger heuristic) & final-vs-interim UNCONFIRMED by TxOdds.
  1. 100'window OPEN
  2. 105'integrated home 56% → OVER
105'AGoal in next 5 minNOresolved
  1. 105'window OPEN
  2. 110'window closed, no event → NO
105'ACorner in next 5 minNOresolved
  1. 105'window OPEN
  2. 110'window closed, no event → NO
105'AShot in next 5 minYESresolved
  1. 105'window OPEN
  2. 107'shot (confirmed) inside window → YES
105'DTotal corners 15-min seg (O/U 4)push
void: segment straddles a period boundary → push/prorate
  1. 105'segment OPEN
  2. 120'straddles boundary → PUSH
105'EHome possession O/U 50% (5min)OVER (65%)resolved⚠
self-integrated from the Possession stream — basis (time-in-control vs danger heuristic) & final-vs-interim UNCONFIRMED by TxOdds.
  1. 105'window OPEN
  2. 110'integrated home 65% → OVER
110'AGoal in next 5 minvoided
void: window straddles a period boundary (HT/FT)
  1. 110'window OPEN
110'ACorner in next 5 minvoided
void: window straddles a period boundary (HT/FT)
  1. 110'window OPEN
110'AShot in next 5 minvoided
void: window straddles a period boundary (HT/FT)
  1. 110'window OPEN
110'EHome possession O/U 50% (5min)voided
void: segment straddles a period boundary
  1. 110'window OPEN
  2. 115'straddles boundary → VOID
112'BCorner outcomecleared_no_shotresolved
  1. 112'corner_awarded → OPEN
  2. 112'LOCK +8.0s (no corner_taken marker)
  3. 112'phase window closes (+30.0s) → cleared_no_shot

Workarounds applied (no real data exists): set-piece Lock = fixed 8s window after the award (no *_taken marker); corner-outcome phase = 30s window (no set-piece id); possession = self-integrated from the Possession stream (basis unconfirmed). The ⚠ flags are exactly where these guesses could mis-settle on real data.