Settlement simulation
Norway vs Sweden (3–1) · fixture #17860648 replayed through the PulsePlay A–E market state machines · 115 market instances · 23 gap-bites (settlement-integrity risks from the missing-data workarounds).
Per-archetype outcomes
A · Rolling window
66 instances
60 resolved
6 voided
B · Set-piece outcome
7 instances
7 resolved
⚠ 3 gap-bites
C · Next-event
12 instances
12 resolved
D · Segment O/U
8 instances
6 resolved
2 push
E · Possession
22 instances
20 resolved
2 voided
⚠ 20 gap-bites
Market instances
115 shown0'AGoal in next 5 minNOresolved
- 0'window OPEN
- 5'window closed, no event → NO
0'ACorner in next 5 minNOresolved
- 0'window OPEN
- 5'window closed, no event → NO
0'AShot in next 5 minYESresolved
- 0'window OPEN
- 3'shot (confirmed) inside window → YES
0'DTotal corners 15-min seg (O/U 4)UNDER (0)resolved
- 0'segment OPEN
- 15'counted 0 corner → UNDER
0'CNext corner: home/awayP1resolved
- 0'OPEN (scheduler tick)
- 23'next corner → P1 (after 1380.8s)
0'CNext throw-in: home/awayP2resolved
- 0'OPEN (scheduler tick)
- 0'next throw_in → P2 (after 19.1s)
0'EHome possession O/U 50% (5min)UNDER (42%)resolved⚠
self-integrated from the Possession stream — basis (time-in-control vs danger heuristic) & final-vs-interim UNCONFIRMED by TxOdds.
- 0'window OPEN
- 5'integrated home 42% → UNDER
5'AGoal in next 5 minYESresolved
- 5'window OPEN
- 9'goal (confirmed) inside window → YES
5'ACorner in next 5 minNOresolved
- 5'window OPEN
- 10'window closed, no event → NO
5'AShot in next 5 minNOresolved
- 5'window OPEN
- 10'window closed, no event → NO
5'EHome possession O/U 50% (5min)OVER (64%)resolved⚠
self-integrated from the Possession stream — basis (time-in-control vs danger heuristic) & final-vs-interim UNCONFIRMED by TxOdds.
- 5'window OPEN
- 10'integrated home 64% → OVER
10'AGoal in next 5 minNOresolved
- 10'window OPEN
- 15'window closed, no event → NO
10'ACorner in next 5 minNOresolved
- 10'window OPEN
- 15'window closed, no event → NO
10'AShot in next 5 minYESresolved
- 10'window OPEN
- 11'shot (confirmed) inside window → YES
10'EHome possession O/U 50% (5min)UNDER (34%)resolved⚠
self-integrated from the Possession stream — basis (time-in-control vs danger heuristic) & final-vs-interim UNCONFIRMED by TxOdds.
- 10'window OPEN
- 15'integrated home 34% → UNDER
15'AGoal in next 5 minYESresolved
- 15'window OPEN
- 18'goal (confirmed) inside window → YES
15'ACorner in next 5 minNOresolved
- 15'window OPEN
- 20'window closed, no event → NO
15'AShot in next 5 minYESresolved
- 15'window OPEN
- 16'shot (confirmed) inside window → YES
15'DTotal corners 15-min seg (O/U 4)UNDER (1)resolved
- 15'segment OPEN
- 30'counted 1 corner → UNDER
15'EHome possession O/U 50% (5min)OVER (70%)resolved⚠
self-integrated from the Possession stream — basis (time-in-control vs danger heuristic) & final-vs-interim UNCONFIRMED by TxOdds.
- 15'window OPEN
- 20'integrated home 70% → OVER
18'CNext corner: home/awayP1resolved
- 18'OPEN (scheduler tick)
- 23'next corner → P1 (after 282.2s)
18'CNext throw-in: home/awayP1resolved
- 18'OPEN (scheduler tick)
- 20'next throw_in → P1 (after 85.2s)
20'AGoal in next 5 minNOresolved
- 20'window OPEN
- 25'window closed, no event → NO
20'ACorner in next 5 minYESresolved
- 20'window OPEN
- 23'corner (confirmed) inside window → YES
20'AShot in next 5 minYESresolved
- 20'window OPEN
- 24'shot (confirmed) inside window → YES
20'EHome possession O/U 50% (5min)OVER (72%)resolved⚠
self-integrated from the Possession stream — basis (time-in-control vs danger heuristic) & final-vs-interim UNCONFIRMED by TxOdds.
- 20'window OPEN
- 25'integrated home 72% → OVER
23'BCorner outcomecleared_no_shotresolved
- 23'corner_awarded → OPEN
- 23'LOCK +8.0s (no corner_taken marker)
- 24'phase window closes (+30.0s) → cleared_no_shot
25'AGoal in next 5 minNOresolved
- 25'window OPEN
- 30'window closed, no event → NO
25'ACorner in next 5 minNOresolved
- 25'window OPEN
- 30'window closed, no event → NO
25'AShot in next 5 minYESresolved
- 25'window OPEN
- 26'shot (confirmed) inside window → YES
25'EHome possession O/U 50% (5min)OVER (62%)resolved⚠
self-integrated from the Possession stream — basis (time-in-control vs danger heuristic) & final-vs-interim UNCONFIRMED by TxOdds.
- 25'window OPEN
- 30'integrated home 62% → OVER
30'AGoal in next 5 minNOresolved
- 30'window OPEN
- 35'window closed, no event → NO
30'ACorner in next 5 minNOresolved
- 30'window OPEN
- 35'window closed, no event → NO
30'AShot in next 5 minYESresolved
- 30'window OPEN
- 31'shot (confirmed) inside window → YES
30'DTotal corners 15-min seg (O/U 4)UNDER (1)resolved
- 30'segment OPEN
- 45'counted 1 corner → UNDER
30'EHome possession O/U 50% (5min)UNDER (44%)resolved⚠
self-integrated from the Possession stream — basis (time-in-control vs danger heuristic) & final-vs-interim UNCONFIRMED by TxOdds.
- 30'window OPEN
- 35'integrated home 44% → UNDER
35'AGoal in next 5 minYESresolved
- 35'window OPEN
- 37'goal (confirmed) inside window → YES
35'ACorner in next 5 minYESresolved
- 35'window OPEN
- 36'corner (confirmed) inside window → YES
35'AShot in next 5 minYESresolved
- 35'window OPEN
- 36'shot (confirmed) inside window → YES
35'EHome possession O/U 50% (5min)OVER (71%)resolved⚠
self-integrated from the Possession stream — basis (time-in-control vs danger heuristic) & final-vs-interim UNCONFIRMED by TxOdds.
- 35'window OPEN
- 40'integrated home 71% → OVER
36'BCorner outcomecleared_no_shotresolved
- 36'corner_awarded → OPEN
- 36'LOCK +8.0s (no corner_taken marker)
- 36'phase window closes (+30.0s) → cleared_no_shot
37'CNext corner: home/awayP1resolved
- 37'OPEN (scheduler tick)
- 67'next corner → P1 (after 1815.3s)
37'CNext throw-in: home/awayP1resolved
- 37'OPEN (scheduler tick)
- 39'next throw_in → P1 (after 152.0s)
40'AGoal in next 5 minNOresolved
- 40'window OPEN
- 45'window closed, no event → NO
40'ACorner in next 5 minNOresolved
- 40'window OPEN
- 45'window closed, no event → NO
40'AShot in next 5 minNOresolved
- 40'window OPEN
- 45'window closed, no event → NO
40'EHome possession O/U 50% (5min)OVER (81%)resolved⚠
self-integrated from the Possession stream — basis (time-in-control vs danger heuristic) & final-vs-interim UNCONFIRMED by TxOdds.
- 40'window OPEN
- 45'integrated home 81% → OVER
45'AGoal in next 5 minvoided
void: window straddles a period boundary (HT/FT)
- 45'window OPEN
45'ACorner in next 5 minvoided
void: window straddles a period boundary (HT/FT)
- 45'window OPEN
45'AShot in next 5 minvoided
void: window straddles a period boundary (HT/FT)
- 45'window OPEN
45'DTotal corners 15-min seg (O/U 4)push
void: segment straddles a period boundary → push/prorate
- 45'segment OPEN
- 60'straddles boundary → PUSH
45'EHome possession O/U 50% (5min)voided
void: segment straddles a period boundary
- 45'window OPEN
- 50'straddles boundary → VOID
50'AGoal in next 5 minNOresolved
- 50'window OPEN
- 55'window closed, no event → NO
50'ACorner in next 5 minNOresolved
- 50'window OPEN
- 55'window closed, no event → NO
50'AShot in next 5 minNOresolved
- 50'window OPEN
- 55'window closed, no event → NO
50'EHome possession O/U 50% (5min)UNDER (0%)resolved⚠
self-integrated from the Possession stream — basis (time-in-control vs danger heuristic) & final-vs-interim UNCONFIRMED by TxOdds.
- 50'window OPEN
- 55'integrated home 0% → UNDER
55'CNext corner: home/awayP1resolved
- 55'OPEN (scheduler tick)
- 67'next corner → P1 (after 716.8s)
55'CNext throw-in: home/awayP1resolved
- 55'OPEN (scheduler tick)
- 63'next throw_in → P1 (after 509.9s)
55'AGoal in next 5 minNOresolved
- 55'window OPEN
- 60'window closed, no event → NO
55'ACorner in next 5 minNOresolved
- 55'window OPEN
- 60'window closed, no event → NO
55'AShot in next 5 minNOresolved
- 55'window OPEN
- 60'window closed, no event → NO
55'EHome possession O/U 50% (5min)UNDER (0%)resolved⚠
self-integrated from the Possession stream — basis (time-in-control vs danger heuristic) & final-vs-interim UNCONFIRMED by TxOdds.
- 55'window OPEN
- 60'integrated home 0% → UNDER
60'AGoal in next 5 minNOresolved
- 60'window OPEN
- 65'window closed, no event → NO
60'ACorner in next 5 minNOresolved
- 60'window OPEN
- 65'window closed, no event → NO
60'AShot in next 5 minNOresolved
- 60'window OPEN
- 65'window closed, no event → NO
60'DTotal corners 15-min seg (O/U 4)UNDER (3)resolved
- 60'segment OPEN
- 75'counted 3 corner → UNDER
60'EHome possession O/U 50% (5min)UNDER (21%)resolved⚠
self-integrated from the Possession stream — basis (time-in-control vs danger heuristic) & final-vs-interim UNCONFIRMED by TxOdds.
- 60'window OPEN
- 65'integrated home 21% → UNDER
65'AGoal in next 5 minNOresolved
- 65'window OPEN
- 70'window closed, no event → NO
65'ACorner in next 5 minYESresolved
- 65'window OPEN
- 67'corner (confirmed) inside window → YES
65'AShot in next 5 minYESresolved
- 65'window OPEN
- 66'shot (confirmed) inside window → YES
65'EHome possession O/U 50% (5min)OVER (81%)resolved⚠
self-integrated from the Possession stream — basis (time-in-control vs danger heuristic) & final-vs-interim UNCONFIRMED by TxOdds.
- 65'window OPEN
- 70'integrated home 81% → OVER
67'BCorner outcomecleared_no_shotresolved
- 67'corner_awarded → OPEN
- 67'LOCK +8.0s (no corner_taken marker)
- 67'phase window closes (+30.0s) → cleared_no_shot
68'BCorner outcomeshot_no_goalresolved
- 68'corner_awarded → OPEN
- 68'LOCK +8.0s (no corner_taken marker)
- 68'phase window closes (+30.0s) → shot_no_goal
70'AGoal in next 5 minNOresolved
- 70'window OPEN
- 75'window closed, no event → NO
70'ACorner in next 5 minYESresolved
- 70'window OPEN
- 73'corner (confirmed) inside window → YES
70'AShot in next 5 minYESresolved
- 70'window OPEN
- 71'shot (confirmed) inside window → YES
70'EHome possession O/U 50% (5min)OVER (62%)resolved⚠
self-integrated from the Possession stream — basis (time-in-control vs danger heuristic) & final-vs-interim UNCONFIRMED by TxOdds.
- 70'window OPEN
- 75'integrated home 62% → OVER
73'BCorner outcomecleared_no_shotresolved⚠
⚠ a shot landed 3.4s AFTER the 30.0s phase window — no set-piece id means it can't be excluded with certainty; window length is a guess.
- 73'corner_awarded → OPEN
- 73'LOCK +8.0s (no corner_taken marker)
- 74'phase window closes (+30.0s) → cleared_no_shot
73'CNext corner: home/awayP2resolved
- 73'OPEN (scheduler tick)
- 83'next corner → P2 (after 585.8s)
73'CNext throw-in: home/awayP1resolved
- 73'OPEN (scheduler tick)
- 75'next throw_in → P1 (after 80.9s)
75'AGoal in next 5 minNOresolved
- 75'window OPEN
- 80'window closed, no event → NO
75'ACorner in next 5 minNOresolved
- 75'window OPEN
- 80'window closed, no event → NO
75'AShot in next 5 minYESresolved
- 75'window OPEN
- 77'shot (confirmed) inside window → YES
75'DTotal corners 15-min seg (O/U 4)UNDER (1)resolved
- 75'segment OPEN
- 90'counted 1 corner → UNDER
75'EHome possession O/U 50% (5min)OVER (100%)resolved⚠
self-integrated from the Possession stream — basis (time-in-control vs danger heuristic) & final-vs-interim UNCONFIRMED by TxOdds.
- 75'window OPEN
- 80'integrated home 100% → OVER
80'AGoal in next 5 minNOresolved
- 80'window OPEN
- 85'window closed, no event → NO
80'ACorner in next 5 minYESresolved
- 80'window OPEN
- 83'corner (confirmed) inside window → YES
80'AShot in next 5 minYESresolved
- 80'window OPEN
- 83'shot (confirmed) inside window → YES
80'EHome possession O/U 50% (5min)UNDER (43%)resolved⚠
self-integrated from the Possession stream — basis (time-in-control vs danger heuristic) & final-vs-interim UNCONFIRMED by TxOdds.
- 80'window OPEN
- 85'integrated home 43% → UNDER
83'BCorner outcomecleared_no_shotresolved⚠
⚠ a shot landed 5.0s AFTER the 30.0s phase window — no set-piece id means it can't be excluded with certainty; window length is a guess.
- 83'corner_awarded → OPEN
- 83'LOCK +8.0s (no corner_taken marker)
- 84'phase window closes (+30.0s) → cleared_no_shot
85'AGoal in next 5 minNOresolved
- 85'window OPEN
- 90'window closed, no event → NO
85'ACorner in next 5 minNOresolved
- 85'window OPEN
- 90'window closed, no event → NO
85'AShot in next 5 minNOresolved
- 85'window OPEN
- 90'window closed, no event → NO
85'EHome possession O/U 50% (5min)UNDER (35%)resolved⚠
self-integrated from the Possession stream — basis (time-in-control vs danger heuristic) & final-vs-interim UNCONFIRMED by TxOdds.
- 85'window OPEN
- 90'integrated home 35% → UNDER
90'AGoal in next 5 minYESresolved
- 90'window OPEN
- 94'goal (confirmed) inside window → YES
90'ACorner in next 5 minNOresolved
- 90'window OPEN
- 95'window closed, no event → NO
90'AShot in next 5 minYESresolved
- 90'window OPEN
- 91'shot (confirmed) inside window → YES
90'DTotal corners 15-min seg (O/U 4)UNDER (1)resolved
- 90'segment OPEN
- 105'counted 1 corner → UNDER
90'EHome possession O/U 50% (5min)UNDER (27%)resolved⚠
self-integrated from the Possession stream — basis (time-in-control vs danger heuristic) & final-vs-interim UNCONFIRMED by TxOdds.
- 90'window OPEN
- 95'integrated home 27% → UNDER
92'CNext corner: home/awayP1resolved
- 92'OPEN (scheduler tick)
- 102'next corner → P1 (after 627.2s)
92'CNext throw-in: home/awayP2resolved
- 92'OPEN (scheduler tick)
- 92'next throw_in → P2 (after 29.3s)
95'AGoal in next 5 minNOresolved
- 95'window OPEN
- 100'window closed, no event → NO
95'ACorner in next 5 minNOresolved
- 95'window OPEN
- 100'window closed, no event → NO
95'AShot in next 5 minYESresolved
- 95'window OPEN
- 95'shot (confirmed) inside window → YES
95'EHome possession O/U 50% (5min)UNDER (16%)resolved⚠
self-integrated from the Possession stream — basis (time-in-control vs danger heuristic) & final-vs-interim UNCONFIRMED by TxOdds.
- 95'window OPEN
- 100'integrated home 16% → UNDER
100'AGoal in next 5 minNOresolved
- 100'window OPEN
- 105'window closed, no event → NO
100'ACorner in next 5 minYESresolved
- 100'window OPEN
- 102'corner (confirmed) inside window → YES
100'AShot in next 5 minYESresolved
- 100'window OPEN
- 103'shot (confirmed) inside window → YES
100'EHome possession O/U 50% (5min)OVER (69%)resolved⚠
self-integrated from the Possession stream — basis (time-in-control vs danger heuristic) & final-vs-interim UNCONFIRMED by TxOdds.
- 100'window OPEN
- 105'integrated home 69% → OVER
102'BCorner outcomecleared_no_shotresolved⚠
⚠ a shot landed 7.9s AFTER the 30.0s phase window — no set-piece id means it can't be excluded with certainty; window length is a guess.
- 102'corner_awarded → OPEN
- 102'LOCK +8.0s (no corner_taken marker)
- 103'phase window closes (+30.0s) → cleared_no_shot
105'AGoal in next 5 minvoided
void: window straddles a period boundary (HT/FT)
- 105'window OPEN
105'ACorner in next 5 minvoided
void: window straddles a period boundary (HT/FT)
- 105'window OPEN
105'AShot in next 5 minvoided
void: window straddles a period boundary (HT/FT)
- 105'window OPEN
105'DTotal corners 15-min seg (O/U 4)push
void: segment straddles a period boundary → push/prorate
- 105'segment OPEN
- 120'straddles boundary → PUSH
105'EHome possession O/U 50% (5min)voided
void: segment straddles a period boundary
- 105'window OPEN
- 110'straddles boundary → VOID
Workarounds applied (no real data exists): set-piece Lock = fixed 8s window after the award (no *_taken marker); corner-outcome phase = 30s window (no set-piece id); possession = self-integrated from the Possession stream (basis unconfirmed). The ⚠ flags are exactly where these guesses could mis-settle on real data.
