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Settlement simulation

Turkey vs North Macedonia (4–0) · fixture #18011346 replayed through the PulsePlay A–E market state machines · 124 market instances · 23 gap-bites (settlement-integrity risks from the missing-data workarounds).

Per-archetype outcomes

A · Rolling window
69 instances
63 resolved
6 voided
B · Set-piece outcome
12 instances
12 resolved
⚠ 2 gap-bites
C · Next-event
12 instances
12 resolved
D · Segment O/U
8 instances
6 resolved
2 push
E · Possession
23 instances
21 resolved
2 voided
⚠ 21 gap-bites

Market instances

124 shown
0'AGoal in next 5 minYESresolved
  1. 0'window OPEN
  2. 2'goal (confirmed) inside window → YES
0'ACorner in next 5 minNOresolved
  1. 0'window OPEN
  2. 5'window closed, no event → NO
0'AShot in next 5 minYESresolved
  1. 0'window OPEN
  2. 0'shot (confirmed) inside window → YES
0'DTotal corners 15-min seg (O/U 4)UNDER (2)resolved
  1. 0'segment OPEN
  2. 15'counted 2 corner → UNDER
0'CNext corner: home/awayP1resolved
  1. 0'OPEN (scheduler tick)
  2. 12'next corner → P1 (after 727.0s)
0'CNext throw-in: home/awayP2resolved
  1. 0'OPEN (scheduler tick)
  2. 0'next throw_in → P2 (after 21.3s)
0'EHome possession O/U 50% (5min)OVER (53%)resolved⚠
self-integrated from the Possession stream — basis (time-in-control vs danger heuristic) & final-vs-interim UNCONFIRMED by TxOdds.
  1. 0'window OPEN
  2. 5'integrated home 53% → OVER
5'AGoal in next 5 minNOresolved
  1. 5'window OPEN
  2. 10'window closed, no event → NO
5'ACorner in next 5 minNOresolved
  1. 5'window OPEN
  2. 10'window closed, no event → NO
5'AShot in next 5 minNOresolved
  1. 5'window OPEN
  2. 10'window closed, no event → NO
5'EHome possession O/U 50% (5min)UNDER (25%)resolved⚠
self-integrated from the Possession stream — basis (time-in-control vs danger heuristic) & final-vs-interim UNCONFIRMED by TxOdds.
  1. 5'window OPEN
  2. 10'integrated home 25% → UNDER
10'AGoal in next 5 minNOresolved
  1. 10'window OPEN
  2. 15'window closed, no event → NO
10'ACorner in next 5 minYESresolved
  1. 10'window OPEN
  2. 12'corner (confirmed) inside window → YES
10'AShot in next 5 minYESresolved
  1. 10'window OPEN
  2. 15'shot (confirmed) inside window → YES
10'EHome possession O/U 50% (5min)OVER (64%)resolved⚠
self-integrated from the Possession stream — basis (time-in-control vs danger heuristic) & final-vs-interim UNCONFIRMED by TxOdds.
  1. 10'window OPEN
  2. 15'integrated home 64% → OVER
12'BCorner outcomecleared_no_shotresolved
  1. 12'corner_awarded → OPEN
  2. 12'LOCK +8.0s (no corner_taken marker)
  3. 13'phase window closes (+30.0s) → cleared_no_shot
15'BCorner outcomecleared_no_shotresolved
  1. 15'corner_awarded → OPEN
  2. 15'LOCK +8.0s (no corner_taken marker)
  3. 15'phase window closes (+30.0s) → cleared_no_shot
15'AGoal in next 5 minYESresolved
  1. 15'window OPEN
  2. 17'goal (confirmed) inside window → YES
15'ACorner in next 5 minNOresolved
  1. 15'window OPEN
  2. 20'window closed, no event → NO
15'AShot in next 5 minYESresolved
  1. 15'window OPEN
  2. 17'shot (confirmed) inside window → YES
15'DTotal corners 15-min seg (O/U 4)UNDER (2)resolved
  1. 15'segment OPEN
  2. 30'counted 2 corner → UNDER
15'EHome possession O/U 50% (5min)UNDER (44%)resolved⚠
self-integrated from the Possession stream — basis (time-in-control vs danger heuristic) & final-vs-interim UNCONFIRMED by TxOdds.
  1. 15'window OPEN
  2. 20'integrated home 44% → UNDER
18'CNext corner: home/awayP1resolved
  1. 18'OPEN (scheduler tick)
  2. 21'next corner → P1 (after 160.0s)
18'CNext throw-in: home/awayP2resolved
  1. 18'OPEN (scheduler tick)
  2. 22'next throw_in → P2 (after 211.4s)
20'AGoal in next 5 minNOresolved
  1. 20'window OPEN
  2. 25'window closed, no event → NO
20'ACorner in next 5 minYESresolved
  1. 20'window OPEN
  2. 21'corner (confirmed) inside window → YES
20'AShot in next 5 minYESresolved
  1. 20'window OPEN
  2. 25'shot (confirmed) inside window → YES
20'EHome possession O/U 50% (5min)UNDER (37%)resolved⚠
self-integrated from the Possession stream — basis (time-in-control vs danger heuristic) & final-vs-interim UNCONFIRMED by TxOdds.
  1. 20'window OPEN
  2. 25'integrated home 37% → UNDER
21'BCorner outcomecleared_no_shotresolved
  1. 21'corner_awarded → OPEN
  2. 21'LOCK +8.0s (no corner_taken marker)
  3. 22'phase window closes (+30.0s) → cleared_no_shot
25'AGoal in next 5 minNOresolved
  1. 25'window OPEN
  2. 30'window closed, no event → NO
25'ACorner in next 5 minYESresolved
  1. 25'window OPEN
  2. 29'corner (confirmed) inside window → YES
25'AShot in next 5 minYESresolved
  1. 25'window OPEN
  2. 30'shot (confirmed) inside window → YES
25'EHome possession O/U 50% (5min)UNDER (49%)resolved⚠
self-integrated from the Possession stream — basis (time-in-control vs danger heuristic) & final-vs-interim UNCONFIRMED by TxOdds.
  1. 25'window OPEN
  2. 30'integrated home 49% → UNDER
29'BCorner outcomeshot_no_goalresolved
  1. 29'corner_awarded → OPEN
  2. 29'LOCK +8.0s (no corner_taken marker)
  3. 30'phase window closes (+30.0s) → shot_no_goal
30'AGoal in next 5 minNOresolved
  1. 30'window OPEN
  2. 35'window closed, no event → NO
30'ACorner in next 5 minNOresolved
  1. 30'window OPEN
  2. 35'window closed, no event → NO
30'AShot in next 5 minNOresolved
  1. 30'window OPEN
  2. 35'window closed, no event → NO
30'DTotal corners 15-min seg (O/U 4)UNDER (0)resolved
  1. 30'segment OPEN
  2. 45'counted 0 corner → UNDER
30'EHome possession O/U 50% (5min)OVER (68%)resolved⚠
self-integrated from the Possession stream — basis (time-in-control vs danger heuristic) & final-vs-interim UNCONFIRMED by TxOdds.
  1. 30'window OPEN
  2. 35'integrated home 68% → OVER
35'AGoal in next 5 minNOresolved
  1. 35'window OPEN
  2. 40'window closed, no event → NO
35'ACorner in next 5 minNOresolved
  1. 35'window OPEN
  2. 40'window closed, no event → NO
35'AShot in next 5 minYESresolved
  1. 35'window OPEN
  2. 38'shot (confirmed) inside window → YES
35'EHome possession O/U 50% (5min)OVER (57%)resolved⚠
self-integrated from the Possession stream — basis (time-in-control vs danger heuristic) & final-vs-interim UNCONFIRMED by TxOdds.
  1. 35'window OPEN
  2. 40'integrated home 57% → OVER
37'CNext corner: home/awayP1resolved
  1. 37'OPEN (scheduler tick)
  2. 68'next corner → P1 (after 1849.4s)
37'CNext throw-in: home/awayP2resolved
  1. 37'OPEN (scheduler tick)
  2. 41'next throw_in → P2 (after 256.5s)
40'AGoal in next 5 minNOresolved
  1. 40'window OPEN
  2. 45'window closed, no event → NO
40'ACorner in next 5 minNOresolved
  1. 40'window OPEN
  2. 45'window closed, no event → NO
40'AShot in next 5 minYESresolved
  1. 40'window OPEN
  2. 43'shot (confirmed) inside window → YES
40'EHome possession O/U 50% (5min)OVER (61%)resolved⚠
self-integrated from the Possession stream — basis (time-in-control vs danger heuristic) & final-vs-interim UNCONFIRMED by TxOdds.
  1. 40'window OPEN
  2. 45'integrated home 61% → OVER
45'AGoal in next 5 minvoided
void: window straddles a period boundary (HT/FT)
  1. 45'window OPEN
45'ACorner in next 5 minvoided
void: window straddles a period boundary (HT/FT)
  1. 45'window OPEN
45'AShot in next 5 minvoided
void: window straddles a period boundary (HT/FT)
  1. 45'window OPEN
45'DTotal corners 15-min seg (O/U 4)push
void: segment straddles a period boundary → push/prorate
  1. 45'segment OPEN
  2. 60'straddles boundary → PUSH
45'EHome possession O/U 50% (5min)voided
void: segment straddles a period boundary
  1. 45'window OPEN
  2. 50'straddles boundary → VOID
50'AGoal in next 5 minNOresolved
  1. 50'window OPEN
  2. 55'window closed, no event → NO
50'ACorner in next 5 minNOresolved
  1. 50'window OPEN
  2. 55'window closed, no event → NO
50'AShot in next 5 minNOresolved
  1. 50'window OPEN
  2. 55'window closed, no event → NO
50'EHome possession O/U 50% (5min)OVER (100%)resolved⚠
self-integrated from the Possession stream — basis (time-in-control vs danger heuristic) & final-vs-interim UNCONFIRMED by TxOdds.
  1. 50'window OPEN
  2. 55'integrated home 100% → OVER
55'AGoal in next 5 minNOresolved
  1. 55'window OPEN
  2. 60'window closed, no event → NO
55'ACorner in next 5 minNOresolved
  1. 55'window OPEN
  2. 60'window closed, no event → NO
55'AShot in next 5 minNOresolved
  1. 55'window OPEN
  2. 60'window closed, no event → NO
55'EHome possession O/U 50% (5min)OVER (100%)resolved⚠
self-integrated from the Possession stream — basis (time-in-control vs danger heuristic) & final-vs-interim UNCONFIRMED by TxOdds.
  1. 55'window OPEN
  2. 60'integrated home 100% → OVER
55'CNext corner: home/awayP1resolved
  1. 55'OPEN (scheduler tick)
  2. 68'next corner → P1 (after 740.9s)
55'CNext throw-in: home/awayP1resolved
  1. 55'OPEN (scheduler tick)
  2. 66'next throw_in → P1 (after 640.1s)
60'AGoal in next 5 minNOresolved
  1. 60'window OPEN
  2. 65'window closed, no event → NO
60'ACorner in next 5 minNOresolved
  1. 60'window OPEN
  2. 65'window closed, no event → NO
60'AShot in next 5 minNOresolved
  1. 60'window OPEN
  2. 65'window closed, no event → NO
60'DTotal corners 15-min seg (O/U 4)UNDER (3)resolved
  1. 60'segment OPEN
  2. 75'counted 3 corner → UNDER
60'EHome possession O/U 50% (5min)OVER (100%)resolved⚠
self-integrated from the Possession stream — basis (time-in-control vs danger heuristic) & final-vs-interim UNCONFIRMED by TxOdds.
  1. 60'window OPEN
  2. 65'integrated home 100% → OVER
65'AGoal in next 5 minNOresolved
  1. 65'window OPEN
  2. 70'window closed, no event → NO
65'ACorner in next 5 minYESresolved
  1. 65'window OPEN
  2. 68'corner (confirmed) inside window → YES
65'AShot in next 5 minYESresolved
  1. 65'window OPEN
  2. 68'shot (confirmed) inside window → YES
65'EHome possession O/U 50% (5min)OVER (67%)resolved⚠
self-integrated from the Possession stream — basis (time-in-control vs danger heuristic) & final-vs-interim UNCONFIRMED by TxOdds.
  1. 65'window OPEN
  2. 70'integrated home 67% → OVER
68'BCorner outcomecleared_no_shotresolved
  1. 68'corner_awarded → OPEN
  2. 68'LOCK +8.0s (no corner_taken marker)
  3. 68'phase window closes (+30.0s) → cleared_no_shot
70'AGoal in next 5 minYESresolved
  1. 70'window OPEN
  2. 73'goal (confirmed) inside window → YES
70'ACorner in next 5 minYESresolved
  1. 70'window OPEN
  2. 71'corner (confirmed) inside window → YES
70'AShot in next 5 minYESresolved
  1. 70'window OPEN
  2. 73'shot (confirmed) inside window → YES
70'EHome possession O/U 50% (5min)OVER (69%)resolved⚠
self-integrated from the Possession stream — basis (time-in-control vs danger heuristic) & final-vs-interim UNCONFIRMED by TxOdds.
  1. 70'window OPEN
  2. 75'integrated home 69% → OVER
71'BCorner outcomecleared_no_shotresolved⚠
⚠ a corner landed 4.0s AFTER the 30.0s phase window — no set-piece id means it can't be excluded with certainty; window length is a guess.
  1. 71'corner_awarded → OPEN
  2. 71'LOCK +8.0s (no corner_taken marker)
  3. 72'phase window closes (+30.0s) → cleared_no_shot
72'BCorner outcomecleared_no_shotresolved
  1. 72'corner_awarded → OPEN
  2. 72'LOCK +8.0s (no corner_taken marker)
  3. 72'phase window closes (+30.0s) → cleared_no_shot
74'CNext corner: home/awayP1resolved
  1. 74'OPEN (scheduler tick)
  2. 84'next corner → P1 (after 616.3s)
74'CNext throw-in: home/awayP2resolved
  1. 74'OPEN (scheduler tick)
  2. 74'next throw_in → P2 (after 11.2s)
75'AGoal in next 5 minNOresolved
  1. 75'window OPEN
  2. 80'window closed, no event → NO
75'ACorner in next 5 minNOresolved
  1. 75'window OPEN
  2. 80'window closed, no event → NO
75'AShot in next 5 minYESresolved
  1. 75'window OPEN
  2. 76'shot (confirmed) inside window → YES
75'DTotal corners 15-min seg (O/U 4)UNDER (2)resolved
  1. 75'segment OPEN
  2. 90'counted 2 corner → UNDER
75'EHome possession O/U 50% (5min)OVER (55%)resolved⚠
self-integrated from the Possession stream — basis (time-in-control vs danger heuristic) & final-vs-interim UNCONFIRMED by TxOdds.
  1. 75'window OPEN
  2. 80'integrated home 55% → OVER
80'AGoal in next 5 minNOresolved
  1. 80'window OPEN
  2. 85'window closed, no event → NO
80'ACorner in next 5 minYESresolved
  1. 80'window OPEN
  2. 84'corner (confirmed) inside window → YES
80'AShot in next 5 minYESresolved
  1. 80'window OPEN
  2. 83'shot (confirmed) inside window → YES
80'EHome possession O/U 50% (5min)OVER (51%)resolved⚠
self-integrated from the Possession stream — basis (time-in-control vs danger heuristic) & final-vs-interim UNCONFIRMED by TxOdds.
  1. 80'window OPEN
  2. 85'integrated home 51% → OVER
84'BCorner outcomeshot_no_goalresolved
  1. 84'corner_awarded → OPEN
  2. 84'LOCK +8.0s (no corner_taken marker)
  3. 85'phase window closes (+30.0s) → shot_no_goal
85'AGoal in next 5 minNOresolved
  1. 85'window OPEN
  2. 90'window closed, no event → NO
85'ACorner in next 5 minYESresolved
  1. 85'window OPEN
  2. 89'corner (confirmed) inside window → YES
85'AShot in next 5 minYESresolved
  1. 85'window OPEN
  2. 89'shot (confirmed) inside window → YES
85'EHome possession O/U 50% (5min)OVER (64%)resolved⚠
self-integrated from the Possession stream — basis (time-in-control vs danger heuristic) & final-vs-interim UNCONFIRMED by TxOdds.
  1. 85'window OPEN
  2. 90'integrated home 64% → OVER
89'BCorner outcomecleared_no_shotresolved
  1. 89'corner_awarded → OPEN
  2. 89'LOCK +8.0s (no corner_taken marker)
  3. 90'phase window closes (+30.0s) → cleared_no_shot
90'AGoal in next 5 minYESresolved
  1. 90'window OPEN
  2. 91'goal (confirmed) inside window → YES
90'ACorner in next 5 minNOresolved
  1. 90'window OPEN
  2. 95'window closed, no event → NO
90'AShot in next 5 minYESresolved
  1. 90'window OPEN
  2. 91'shot (confirmed) inside window → YES
90'DTotal corners 15-min seg (O/U 4)UNDER (3)resolved
  1. 90'segment OPEN
  2. 105'counted 3 corner → UNDER
90'EHome possession O/U 50% (5min)OVER (93%)resolved⚠
self-integrated from the Possession stream — basis (time-in-control vs danger heuristic) & final-vs-interim UNCONFIRMED by TxOdds.
  1. 90'window OPEN
  2. 95'integrated home 93% → OVER
92'CNext corner: home/awayP1resolved
  1. 92'OPEN (scheduler tick)
  2. 97'next corner → P1 (after 251.2s)
92'CNext throw-in: home/awayP2resolved
  1. 92'OPEN (scheduler tick)
  2. 100'next throw_in → P2 (after 484.8s)
95'AGoal in next 5 minNOresolved
  1. 95'window OPEN
  2. 100'window closed, no event → NO
95'ACorner in next 5 minYESresolved
  1. 95'window OPEN
  2. 97'corner (confirmed) inside window → YES
95'AShot in next 5 minYESresolved
  1. 95'window OPEN
  2. 96'shot (confirmed) inside window → YES
95'EHome possession O/U 50% (5min)OVER (91%)resolved⚠
self-integrated from the Possession stream — basis (time-in-control vs danger heuristic) & final-vs-interim UNCONFIRMED by TxOdds.
  1. 95'window OPEN
  2. 100'integrated home 91% → OVER
97'BCorner outcomeshot_no_goalresolved⚠
⚠ a corner landed 4.6s AFTER the 30.0s phase window — no set-piece id means it can't be excluded with certainty; window length is a guess.
  1. 97'corner_awarded → OPEN
  2. 97'LOCK +8.0s (no corner_taken marker)
  3. 97'phase window closes (+30.0s) → shot_no_goal
97'BCorner outcomeshot_no_goalresolved
  1. 97'corner_awarded → OPEN
  2. 97'LOCK +8.0s (no corner_taken marker)
  3. 98'phase window closes (+30.0s) → shot_no_goal
98'BCorner outcomecleared_no_shotresolved
  1. 98'corner_awarded → OPEN
  2. 98'LOCK +8.0s (no corner_taken marker)
  3. 99'phase window closes (+30.0s) → cleared_no_shot
100'AGoal in next 5 minNOresolved
  1. 100'window OPEN
  2. 105'window closed, no event → NO
100'ACorner in next 5 minNOresolved
  1. 100'window OPEN
  2. 105'window closed, no event → NO
100'AShot in next 5 minNOresolved
  1. 100'window OPEN
  2. 105'window closed, no event → NO
100'EHome possession O/U 50% (5min)OVER (58%)resolved⚠
self-integrated from the Possession stream — basis (time-in-control vs danger heuristic) & final-vs-interim UNCONFIRMED by TxOdds.
  1. 100'window OPEN
  2. 105'integrated home 58% → OVER
105'AGoal in next 5 minNOresolved
  1. 105'window OPEN
  2. 110'window closed, no event → NO
105'ACorner in next 5 minYESresolved
  1. 105'window OPEN
  2. 109'corner (confirmed) inside window → YES
105'AShot in next 5 minYESresolved
  1. 105'window OPEN
  2. 109'shot (confirmed) inside window → YES
105'DTotal corners 15-min seg (O/U 4)push
void: segment straddles a period boundary → push/prorate
  1. 105'segment OPEN
  2. 120'straddles boundary → PUSH
105'EHome possession O/U 50% (5min)OVER (67%)resolved⚠
self-integrated from the Possession stream — basis (time-in-control vs danger heuristic) & final-vs-interim UNCONFIRMED by TxOdds.
  1. 105'window OPEN
  2. 110'integrated home 67% → OVER
110'AGoal in next 5 minvoided
void: window straddles a period boundary (HT/FT)
  1. 110'window OPEN
110'ACorner in next 5 minvoided
void: window straddles a period boundary (HT/FT)
  1. 110'window OPEN
110'AShot in next 5 minvoided
void: window straddles a period boundary (HT/FT)
  1. 110'window OPEN
110'EHome possession O/U 50% (5min)voided
void: segment straddles a period boundary
  1. 110'window OPEN
  2. 115'straddles boundary → VOID

Workarounds applied (no real data exists): set-piece Lock = fixed 8s window after the award (no *_taken marker); corner-outcome phase = 30s window (no set-piece id); possession = self-integrated from the Possession stream (basis unconfirmed). The ⚠ flags are exactly where these guesses could mis-settle on real data.